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Novorizontino vs Criciuma Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 19 ·Tuesday, July 21, 2026, 22:30

Novorizontino

PPG 2.12 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWWW

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Criciuma

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLLW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.5%0-111.0%0-24.8%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.0%1-113.2%1-25.8%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.0%2-17.9%2-23.5%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.6%3-13.2%3-21.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.2%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.1% 43.5% 2.30 +3.7%

Draw 28.1% 32.8% 3.05 -8.6%

Away win 26.8% 30.8% 3.25 -7.7%

Over 2.5 46.8% 40.8% 2.45 +14.7%

Over 3.5 27.1% 21.1% 4.75 +17.2%

BTTS 48.4% 50.0% 2.00 -3.2%

Home O1.5 36.8% 38.2% 2.62 -3.6%

Away O1.5 25.0% 29.4% 3.40 -9.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 179 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 22.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.4%

H 45% / xG 1.2-0.9 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 12.5%

#3 1–0 15.0%

#4 2–0 9.0%

#5 0–1✓ 11.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Novorizontino1.2

Criciuma0.9

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.8% · O3.5 PROB 27.1%

Form & verdict PPG

NOVORIZONTINO · PPG 2.12

CRICIUMA · PPG 1.67

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

48%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.12) > Away GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

Novorizontino (H) 45.1%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +3.7%

Draw 28.1%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -8.6%

Criciuma (A) 26.8%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -7.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Novorizontino face Criciuma in Brazil - Serie B on Tuesday, July 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Novorizontino a 45% chance, the draw 28% and Criciuma 27%, so Novorizontino are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Novorizontino and 0.9 for Criciuma (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Novorizontino are averaging 2.12 points per game versus 1.67 for Criciuma. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +17.2%. This match finished 0-1.

Novorizontino vs Criciuma Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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