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Novorizontino vs Criciuma Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Regular Season - 19 ·Tuesday, July 21, 2026, 22:30

Novorizontino

PPG 2.12 · HOME

UPCOMING

Criciuma

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.5%0-111.0%0-24.8%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.0%1-113.2%1-25.8%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.0%2-17.9%2-23.5%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.6%3-13.2%3-21.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.2%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.1% 43.5% 2.30 +3.7%

Draw 28.1% 32.8% 3.05 -8.6%

Away win 26.8% 30.8% 3.25 -7.7%

Over 2.5 46.8% 40.8% 2.45 +14.7%

Over 3.5 27.1% 21.1% 4.75 +17.2%

BTTS 48.4% 50.0% 2.00 -3.2%

Home O1.5 36.8% 38.2% 2.62 -3.6%

Away O1.5 25.0% 29.4% 3.40 -9.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 101 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 15.6%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.4%

H 45% / xG 1.2-0.9 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 12.5%

#3 1–0 15.0%

#4 2–0 9.0%

#5 0–1 11.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Novorizontino1.2

Criciuma0.9

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.8% · O3.5 PROB 27.1%

Form & verdict PPG

NOVORIZONTINO · PPG 2.12

CRICIUMA · PPG 1.67

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.12) > Away GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

Novorizontino (H) 45.1%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +3.7%

Draw 28.1%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -8.6%

Criciuma (A) 26.8%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -7.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Novorizontino face Criciuma in Brazil - Serie B on Tuesday, July 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Novorizontino a 45% chance, the draw 28% and Criciuma 27%, so Novorizontino are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Novorizontino and 0.9 for Criciuma (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Novorizontino are averaging 2.12 points per game versus 1.67 for Criciuma. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +17.2%.

Novorizontino vs Criciuma Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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