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KäPa vs Klubi-04 Prediction— Finland - Ykkosliga

Group Stage ·Tuesday, July 21, 2026, 16:00

KäPa

PPG 1.29 · HOME

UPCOMING

Klubi-04

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.2%0-19.1%0-24.5%0-31.5%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.9%1-112.7%1-26.3%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.0%2-18.9%2-24.4%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.2%3-14.2%3-22.0%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.0%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.0% 47.6% 2.10 -3.4%

Draw 26.8% 28.6% 3.50 -3.7%

Away win 27.2% 33.9% 2.95 -11.9%

Over 2.5 50.0% 60.6% 1.65 -17.5%

Over 3.5 28.8% 38.5% 2.60 -15.1%

BTTS 52.3% 66.7% 1.50 -21.6%

Home O1.5 44.8% 54.1% 1.85 -17.1%

Away O1.5 30.1% 43.5% 2.30 -30.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 8 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 38%

Score Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.3%

H 46% / xG 1.4-1.0 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0 9.2%

#3 1–0 12.9%

#4 2–0 9.0%

#5 2–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

KäPa1.4

Klubi-041.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

KÄPA · PPG 1.29

KLUBI-04 · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.29) > Away POOR (0.67)

Win probability 1X2

KäPa (H) 46.0%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -3.4%

Draw 26.8%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -3.7%

Klubi-04 (A) 27.2%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -11.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

KäPa face Klubi-04 in Finland - Ykkosliga on Tuesday, July 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives KäPa a 46% chance, the draw 27% and Klubi-04 27%, so KäPa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for KäPa and 1.0 for Klubi-04 (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, KäPa are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 0.67 for Klubi-04.

KäPa vs Klubi-04 Prediction— Finland - Ykkosliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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