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Toluca U21 vs UNAM Pumas U21 Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX U21

Regular Season - 2 ·Tuesday, July 21, 2026, 15:00

Toluca U21

PPG 0.01 · HOME

UPCOMING

UNAM Pumas U21

PPG 0.01 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.2%0-114.8%0-27.7%0-32.7%0-4+0.9%1 1-012.9%1-113.5%1-27.0%1-32.5%1-4+0.8%2 2-05.8%2-16.1%2-23.2%2-31.1%2-4+0.4%3 3-01.8%3-11.9%3-21.0%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.5%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.9% 45.5% 2.20 -27.6%

Draw 31.9% 34.5% 2.90 -7.5%

Away win 35.2% 33.3% 3.00 +5.6%

Over 2.5 40.0% 42.6% 2.35 -6.0%

Over 3.5 21.3% 23.3% 4.30 -5.1%

BTTS 48.4% 51.3% 1.95 -5.6%

Home O1.5 33.3% 39.5% 2.53 -15.8%

Away O1.5 36.3% 31.8% 3.14 +14.0%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.4%

D 32% / xG 0.9-1.0 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.2%

#2 1–1 13.5%

#3 0–1 14.8%

#4 1–0 12.9%

#5 0–2 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Toluca U210.9

UNAM Pumas U211.0

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.0% · O3.5 PROB 21.3%

Form & verdict PPG

TOLUCA U21 · PPG 0.01

UNAM PUMAS U21 · PPG 0.01

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.01), Away POOR (0.01)

Win probability 1X2

Toluca U21 (H) 32.9%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -27.6%

Draw 31.9%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -7.5%

UNAM Pumas U21 (A) 35.2%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +5.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Toluca U21 face UNAM Pumas U21 in Mexico - Liga MX U21 on Tuesday, July 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Toluca U21 a 33% chance, the draw 32% and UNAM Pumas U21 35%, so UNAM Pumas U21 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Toluca U21 and 1.0 for UNAM Pumas U21 (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Toluca U21 are averaging 0.01 points per game versus 0.01 for UNAM Pumas U21. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +14.0%.

Toluca U21 vs UNAM Pumas U21 Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX U21

Match Preview & Prediction

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