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Sogdiana vs Neftchi Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Matchday 13 ·Tuesday, July 21, 2026, 15:00

Sogdiana

PPG 1.17 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWL

1 – 5

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY O1.5

Neftchi

PPG 2.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLWL

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5 63% chance

Model probability 68.9% vs bookmaker-implied 61.0% — a clear edge.

+13.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-17.4%0-211.2%0-311.3%0-4+18.0%1 1-01.7%1-15.1%1-27.7%1-37.7%1-4+12.4%2 2-00.6%2-11.7%2-22.6%2-32.7%2-4+4.2%3 3-00.1%3-10.4%3-20.6%3-30.6%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 16.9% 17.2% 5.80 -1.2%

Draw 16.7% 27.8% 3.60 -23.9%

Away win 66.4% 66.7% 1.50 -0.4%

Over 2.5 67.0% 54.1% 1.85 +23.9%

Over 3.5 44.3% 32.8% 3.05 +35.1%

BTTS 52.3% 54.1% 1.85 -3.2%

Home O1.5 33.3% 21.3% 4.70 +56.5%

Away O1.5 68.9% 61.0% 1.64 +13.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-5

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)3.0 BTTS prob52.3%

A 66% / xG 0.7-3.0 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–3 11.3%

#2 0–2 11.2%

#3 0–4 8.5%

#4 1–3 7.7%

#5 1–2 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sogdiana0.7

Neftchi3.0

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SOGDIANA · PPG 1.17

NEFTCHI · PPG 2.60

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.60) vs Home AVERAGE (1.17)

Win probability 1X2

Sogdiana (H) 16.9%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV -1.2%

Draw 16.7%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -23.9%

Neftchi (A) 66.4%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -0.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sogdiana face Neftchi in Uzbekistan - Super League on Tuesday, July 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sogdiana a 17% chance, the draw 17% and Neftchi 66%, so Neftchi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Sogdiana and 3.0 for Neftchi (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-3. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sogdiana are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 2.60 for Neftchi. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +56.5%. This match finished 1-5.

Sogdiana vs Neftchi Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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