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Sogdiana vs Neftchi Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Regular Season - 13 ·Tuesday, July 21, 2026, 15:00

Sogdiana

PPG 1.17 · HOME

UPCOMING

Neftchi

PPG 2.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 68.9% vs bookmaker-implied 61.0% — a clear edge.

+13.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-17.4%0-211.2%0-311.3%0-4+18.0%1 1-01.7%1-15.1%1-27.7%1-37.7%1-4+12.4%2 2-00.6%2-11.7%2-22.6%2-32.7%2-4+4.2%3 3-00.1%3-10.4%3-20.6%3-30.6%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 16.9% 17.2% 5.80 -1.2%

Draw 16.7% 27.8% 3.60 -23.9%

Away win 66.4% 66.7% 1.50 -0.4%

Over 2.5 67.0% 54.1% 1.85 +23.9%

Over 3.5 44.3% 32.8% 3.05 +35.1%

BTTS 52.3% 54.1% 1.85 -3.2%

Home O1.5 33.3% 21.3% 4.70 +56.5%

Away O1.5 68.9% 61.0% 1.64 +13.0%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 62%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)3.0 BTTS prob52.3%

A 66% / xG 0.7-3.0 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–3 11.3%

#2 0–2 11.2%

#3 0–4 8.5%

#4 1–3 7.7%

#5 1–2 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sogdiana0.7

Neftchi3.0

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SOGDIANA · PPG 1.17

NEFTCHI · PPG 2.60

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.60) vs Home AVERAGE (1.17)

Win probability 1X2

Sogdiana (H) 16.9%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV -1.2%

Draw 16.7%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -23.9%

Neftchi (A) 66.4%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -0.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sogdiana face Neftchi in Uzbekistan - Super League on Tuesday, July 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sogdiana a 17% chance, the draw 17% and Neftchi 66%, so Neftchi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Sogdiana and 3.0 for Neftchi (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-3. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sogdiana are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 2.60 for Neftchi. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +56.5%.

Sogdiana vs Neftchi Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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