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Buxoro vs Bunyodkor Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Matchday 13 ·Tuesday, July 21, 2026, 15:00

Buxoro

PPG 2.17 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWWD

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Bunyodkor

PPG 2.17 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLL 

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.6%0-110.7%0-24.9%0-31.5%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.3%1-113.2%1-26.1%1-31.9%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.8%2-18.1%2-23.7%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.6%3-13.3%3-21.5%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.3%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.8% 51.3% 1.95 -12.6%

Draw 28.5% 33.3% 3.00 -8.7%

Away win 26.6% 28.6% 3.50 -4.1%

Over 2.5 46.8% 47.6% 2.10 -1.7%

Over 3.5 26.7% 26.0% 3.84 +1.5%

BTTS 48.4% 54.1% 1.85 -10.5%

Home O1.5 37.0% 45.7% 2.19 -19.0%

Away O1.5 25.7% 29.2% 3.42 -7.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.4%

H 45% / xG 1.2-0.9 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 11.6%

#3 1–0✓ 14.3%

#4 2–0 8.8%

#5 0–1 10.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Buxoro1.2

Bunyodkor0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.8% · O3.5 PROB 26.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BUXORO · PPG 2.17

BUNYODKOR · PPG 2.17

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

48%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.17), Away EXCELLENT (2.17)

Win probability 1X2

Buxoro (H) 44.8%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -12.6%

Draw 28.5%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -8.7%

Bunyodkor (A) 26.6%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -4.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Buxoro face Bunyodkor in Uzbekistan - Super League on Tuesday, July 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Buxoro a 45% chance, the draw 28% and Bunyodkor 27%, so Buxoro are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Buxoro and 0.9 for Bunyodkor (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Buxoro are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 2.17 for Bunyodkor. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +1.5%. This match finished 1-0.

Buxoro vs Bunyodkor Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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