Today / Brazil - Serie B / Avai vs America Mineiro

Avai vs America Mineiro Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 19 ·Tuesday, July 21, 2026, 22:30

Avai

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWWL

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

America Mineiro

PPG 0.56 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLW

// Model verdict

Home 49% chance

Model probability 54.2% vs bookmaker-implied 47.2% — a clear edge.

+14.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.8%0-17.0%0-22.5%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.8%1-111.2%1-24.0%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.7%2-19.1%2-23.2%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.8%3-14.9%3-21.7%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-12.8%4+-21.0%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.2% 47.2% 2.12 +14.9%

Draw 25.6% 31.3% 3.20 -10.8%

Away win 20.2% 28.2% 3.55 -17.0%

Over 2.5 46.8% 44.4% 2.25 +5.3%

Over 3.5 28.8% 23.8% 4.20 +12.6%

BTTS 48.4% 52.4% 1.91 -7.6%

Home O1.5 53.4% 43.5% 2.30 +22.8%

Away O1.5 20.7% 29.4% 3.40 -17.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 175 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 22.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.4%

H 54% / xG 1.6-0.7 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.8%

#2 1–1 11.2%

#3 2–0 12.7%

#4 0–0 9.8%

#5 2–1✓ 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Avai1.6

America Mineiro0.7

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.8% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

AVAI · PPG 1.33

AMERICA MINEIRO · PPG 0.56

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

49%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.33) > Away POOR (0.56)

Win probability 1X2

Avai (H) 54.2%

ODDS 2.12 · IMPLIED 47.2% EV +14.9%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -10.8%

America Mineiro (A) 20.2%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -17.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Avai face America Mineiro in Brazil - Serie B on Tuesday, July 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Avai a 54% chance, the draw 26% and America Mineiro 20%, so Avai are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Avai and 0.7 for America Mineiro (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Avai are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.56 for America Mineiro. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +22.8%. This match finished 2-1.

Avai vs America Mineiro Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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