Today / Brazil - Serie B / Avai vs America Mineiro

Avai vs America Mineiro Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Regular Season - 19 ·Tuesday, July 21, 2026, 22:30

Avai

PPG 1.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

America Mineiro

PPG 0.56 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.2% vs bookmaker-implied 47.2% — a clear edge.

+14.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.8%0-17.0%0-22.5%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.8%1-111.2%1-24.0%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.7%2-19.1%2-23.2%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.8%3-14.9%3-21.7%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-12.8%4+-21.0%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.2% 47.2% 2.12 +14.9%

Draw 25.6% 31.3% 3.20 -10.8%

Away win 20.2% 28.2% 3.55 -17.0%

Over 2.5 46.8% 44.4% 2.25 +5.3%

Over 3.5 28.8% 23.8% 4.20 +12.6%

BTTS 48.4% 52.4% 1.91 -7.6%

Home O1.5 53.4% 43.5% 2.30 +22.8%

Away O1.5 20.7% 29.4% 3.40 -17.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 101 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 15.6%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.4%

H 54% / xG 1.6-0.7 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.8%

#2 1–1 11.2%

#3 2–0 12.7%

#4 0–0 9.8%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Avai1.6

America Mineiro0.7

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.8% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

AVAI · PPG 1.33

AMERICA MINEIRO · PPG 0.56

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.33) > Away POOR (0.56)

Win probability 1X2

Avai (H) 54.2%

ODDS 2.12 · IMPLIED 47.2% EV +14.9%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -10.8%

America Mineiro (A) 20.2%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -17.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Avai face America Mineiro in Brazil - Serie B on Tuesday, July 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Avai a 54% chance, the draw 26% and America Mineiro 20%, so Avai are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Avai and 0.7 for America Mineiro (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Avai are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.56 for America Mineiro. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +22.8%.

Avai vs America Mineiro Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

More Brazil - Serie B Predictions