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Cruz Azul U21 vs Puebla U21 Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX U21

Regular Season - 2 ·Tuesday, July 21, 2026, 15:00

Cruz Azul U21

PPG 0.01 · HOME

UPCOMING

Puebla U21

PPG 3.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 69.5% vs bookmaker-implied 33.3% — a clear edge.

+108.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-114.8%0-218.3%0-315.2%0-4+17.0%1 1-02.0%1-15.0%1-26.2%1-35.1%1-4+5.8%2 2-00.3%2-10.8%2-21.1%2-30.9%2-4+1.0%3 3-00.0%3-10.1%3-20.1%3-30.1%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.0%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.0% 45.5% 2.20 -42.8%

Draw 17.5% 34.5% 2.90 -29.5%

Away win 69.5% 33.3% 3.00 +108.5%

Over 2.5 56.1% 44.4% 2.25 +26.2%

Over 3.5 34.7% 24.4% 4.10 +42.3%

BTTS 46.4% 54.1% 1.85 -14.2%

Home O1.5 0.0% 41.2% 2.43 -60.0%

Away O1.5 67.5% 31.8% 3.14 +111.9%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 54%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.3 xG (away)2.5 BTTS prob46.4%

A 70% / xG 0.3-2.5 / O2.5 56% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 18.3%

#2 0–3 15.2%

#3 0–1 14.8%

#4 0–4 9.4%

#5 0–0 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cruz Azul U210.3

Puebla U212.5

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.1% · O3.5 PROB 34.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CRUZ AZUL U21 · PPG 0.01

PUEBLA U21 · PPG 3.00

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs Home POOR (0.01)

Win probability 1X2

Cruz Azul U21 (H) 13.0%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -42.8%

Draw 17.5%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -29.5%

Puebla U21 (A) 69.5%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +108.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cruz Azul U21 face Puebla U21 in Mexico - Liga MX U21 on Tuesday, July 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cruz Azul U21 a 13% chance, the draw 18% and Puebla U21 70%, so Puebla U21 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.3 for Cruz Azul U21 and 2.5 for Puebla U21 (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cruz Azul U21 are averaging 0.01 points per game versus 3.00 for Puebla U21. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +192.4%.

Cruz Azul U21 vs Puebla U21 Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX U21

Match Preview & Prediction

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