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Jeonbuk Motors vs Daejeon Citizen Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Matchday 19 ·Tuesday, July 21, 2026, 10:30

Jeonbuk Motors

PPG 1.88 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWDD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Daejeon Citizen

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWWL

// Model verdict

BTTS 56% chance

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-110.2%0-26.1%0-32.4%0-4+1.0%1 1-010.8%1-112.9%1-27.7%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-06.8%2-18.2%2-24.9%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.9%3-13.4%3-22.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.4%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.8% 51.3% 1.95 -20.4%

Draw 27.0% 28.6% 3.50 -3.3%

Away win 32.2% 27.4% 3.65 +17.5%

Over 2.5 50.0% 51.3% 1.95 -2.5%

Over 3.5 28.8% 29.4% 3.40 -1.3%

BTTS 52.9% 57.1% 1.75 -7.4%

Home O1.5 39.2% 50.0% 2.00 -21.6%

Away O1.5 36.6% 32.3% 3.10 +13.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -23.8%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 19%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.9%

H 41% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0✓ 8.5%

#3 1–0 10.8%

#4 0–1 10.2%

#5 2–1 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jeonbuk Motors1.3

Daejeon Citizen1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

JEONBUK MOTORS · PPG 1.88

DAEJEON CITIZEN · PPG 1.75

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

56%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.88), Away GOOD (1.75)

Win probability 1X2

Jeonbuk Motors (H) 40.8%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -20.4%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -3.3%

Daejeon Citizen (A) 32.2%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +17.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jeonbuk Motors face Daejeon Citizen in South Korea - K League 1 on Tuesday, July 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jeonbuk Motors a 41% chance, the draw 27% and Daejeon Citizen 32%, so Jeonbuk Motors are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Jeonbuk Motors and 1.2 for Daejeon Citizen (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jeonbuk Motors are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 1.75 for Daejeon Citizen. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +17.5%. This match finished 0-0.

Jeonbuk Motors vs Daejeon Citizen Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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