Today / South Korea - K League 1 / Jeonbuk Motors vs Daejeon Citizen

Jeonbuk Motors vs Daejeon Citizen Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Regular Season - 19 ·Tuesday, July 21, 2026, 10:30

Jeonbuk Motors

PPG 1.88 · HOME

UPCOMING

Daejeon Citizen

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-110.2%0-26.1%0-32.4%0-4+1.0%1 1-010.8%1-112.9%1-27.7%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-06.8%2-18.2%2-24.9%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.9%3-13.4%3-22.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.4%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.8% 51.3% 1.95 -20.4%

Draw 27.0% 28.6% 3.50 -3.3%

Away win 32.2% 27.4% 3.65 +17.5%

Over 2.5 50.0% 51.3% 1.95 -2.5%

Over 3.5 28.8% 29.4% 3.40 -1.3%

BTTS 52.9% 57.1% 1.75 -7.4%

Home O1.5 39.2% 50.0% 2.00 -21.6%

Away O1.5 36.6% 32.3% 3.10 +13.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 60%

ROI -25.3%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 19%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.9%

H 41% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 8.5%

#3 1–0 10.8%

#4 0–1 10.2%

#5 2–1 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jeonbuk Motors1.3

Daejeon Citizen1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

JEONBUK MOTORS · PPG 1.88

DAEJEON CITIZEN · PPG 1.75

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.88), Away GOOD (1.75)

Win probability 1X2

Jeonbuk Motors (H) 40.8%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -20.4%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -3.3%

Daejeon Citizen (A) 32.2%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +17.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jeonbuk Motors face Daejeon Citizen in South Korea - K League 1 on Tuesday, July 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jeonbuk Motors a 41% chance, the draw 27% and Daejeon Citizen 32%, so Jeonbuk Motors are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Jeonbuk Motors and 1.2 for Daejeon Citizen (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jeonbuk Motors are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 1.75 for Daejeon Citizen. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +17.5%.

Jeonbuk Motors vs Daejeon Citizen Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More South Korea - K League 1 Predictions