MLS
▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE
SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE
// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 109 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
45.9%
1X2
50/109
60.6%
O/U 2.5
66/109
64.2%
BTTS
70/109
47.7%
Exact score
52/109
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
33
Settled
51.5%
Hit rate
17/33
1.62
Avg odds
-18.9%
ROI
-6.2u
Picks by market
OVER 2.5 · N=16 62.5% HIT · AVG 1.59 · -0.3% ROI
HOME O1.5 · N=14 42.9% HIT · AVG 1.62 · -34.5% ROI
HOME WIN · N=3 33.3% HIT · AVG 1.79 · -45.0% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
6
Bets
83%
Hit
+26.7%
ROI
✓ Solid
7
Bets
29%
Hit
-58.9%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
20
Bets
50%
Hit
-18.6%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
August 2026 // 15 PICKS · 10 HIT · 5 MISS
30 AUG Sporting Kansas City vs Vancouver Whitecaps AO1.5 0–3 HIT30 AUG Houston Dynamo vs San Jose Earthquakes BTTS -16% 0–0 MISS30 AUG Nashville SC vs FC Cincinnati HO1.5 4–0 HIT30 AUG Minnesota United FC vs Orlando City SC HO1.5 3–3 HIT30 AUG Colorado Rapids vs Real Salt Lake Over 2.5 -3% 1–0 MISS30 AUG Portland Timbers vs Austin Over 2.5 +1% 1–2 HIT30 AUG San Diego vs Los Angeles Galaxy Over 2.5 -18% 3–1 HIT30 AUG Columbus Crew vs New England Revolution BTTS -15% 1–3 HIT30 AUG St. Louis City vs FC Dallas BTTS -9% 3–3 HIT29 AUG Seattle Sounders vs Chicago Fire BTTS -21% 2–2 HIT29 AUG DC United vs Los Angeles FC BTTS -17% 0–0 MISS29 AUG Inter Miami vs CF Montreal HO1.5 7–1 HIT29 AUG Atlanta United FC vs Charlotte Over 2.5 -3% 0–2 MISS29 AUG Toronto FC vs New York City FC Over 2.5 -0% 1–1 MISS29 AUG New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union Over 2.5 -9% 1–3 HIT