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Nashville SC vs FC Cincinnati Prediction— USA - MLS

Matchday 22 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 00:30

Nashville SC

PPG 2.82 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWWW

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

FC Cincinnati

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWDL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 77.3% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5% — a clear edge.

+19.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.0%0-11.1%0-20.6%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-03.6%1-13.9%1-22.1%1-30.8%1-4+0.3%2 2-06.3%2-16.8%2-23.7%2-31.3%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.3%3-17.9%3-24.3%3-31.5%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-015.7%4+-117.0%4+-29.2%4+-33.3%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 69.2% 55.2% 1.81 +25.3%

Draw 15.8% 24.4% 4.10 -21.1%

Away win 15.0% 27.4% 3.65 -27.2%

Over 2.5 72.0% 69.4% 1.44 +3.7%

Over 3.5 51.5% 47.6% 2.10 +8.2%

BTTS 60.8% 70.4% 1.42 -13.7%

Home O1.5 77.3% 64.5% 1.55 +19.8%

Away O1.5 32.8% 44.4% 2.25 -26.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -18.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 72%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)3.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob60.8%

H 69% / xG 3.5-1.1 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.9%

#2 3–0 7.3%

#3 1–1 3.9%

#4 4–1 6.9%

#5 2–1 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nashville SC3.5

FC Cincinnati1.1

COMBINED 4.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.0% · O3.5 PROB 51.5%

Form & verdict PPG

NASHVILLE SC · PPG 2.82

FC CINCINNATI · PPG 0.80

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.41 for Home, form 2.82 vs 0.80 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Nashville SC (H) 69.2%

ODDS 1.81 · IMPLIED 55.2% EV +25.3%

Draw 15.8%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -21.1%

FC Cincinnati (A) 15.0%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -27.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nashville SC face FC Cincinnati in USA - MLS on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nashville SC a 69% chance, the draw 16% and FC Cincinnati 15%, so Nashville SC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.5 for Nashville SC and 1.1 for FC Cincinnati (4.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nashville SC are averaging 2.82 points per game versus 0.80 for FC Cincinnati. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +79.9%. This match finished 4-0.

Nashville SC vs FC Cincinnati Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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