Today / USA - MLS / Atlanta United FC vs Charlotte

Atlanta United FC vs Charlotte Prediction— USA - MLS

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 23:30

Atlanta United FC

PPG 1.30 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWWL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Charlotte

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 62.0% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-16.7%0-24.8%0-32.3%0-4+1.1%1 1-07.7%1-110.9%1-27.8%1-33.7%1-4+1.8%2 2-06.3%2-18.9%2-26.4%2-33.0%2-4+1.5%3 3-03.4%3-14.9%3-23.5%3-31.6%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.9%4+-22.0%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.5% 41.7% 2.40 +2.0%

Draw 23.2% 27.0% 3.70 -8.5%

Away win 34.3% 38.2% 2.62 -10.1%

Over 2.5 62.0% 63.7% 1.57 -2.7%

Over 3.5 39.3% 41.7% 2.40 -5.7%

BTTS 61.3% 67.6% 1.48 -9.3%

Home O1.5 48.9% 51.8% 1.93 -5.6%

Away O1.5 40.9% 48.8% 2.05 -16.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -18.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.3%

H 42% / xG 1.6-1.4 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 1–2 7.8%

#4 2–0 6.3%

#5 1–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atlanta United FC1.6

Charlotte1.4

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.0% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLANTA UNITED FC · PPG 1.30

CHARLOTTE · PPG 0.89

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.21 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Atlanta United FC (H) 42.5%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +2.0%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -8.5%

Charlotte (A) 34.3%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -10.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atlanta United FC face Charlotte in USA - MLS on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atlanta United FC a 43% chance, the draw 23% and Charlotte 34%, so Atlanta United FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Atlanta United FC and 1.4 for Charlotte (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atlanta United FC are averaging 1.30 points per game versus 0.89 for Charlotte. This match finished 0-2.

Atlanta United FC vs Charlotte Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

More USA - MLS Predictions