Today / USA - MLS / Inter Miami vs CF Montreal

Inter Miami vs CF Montreal Prediction— USA - MLS

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 23:30

Inter Miami

PPG 1.44 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDLW

7 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

CF Montreal

PPG 0.70 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWDL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 77.3% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.1%0-11.5%0-21.0%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-03.3%1-14.6%1-23.2%1-31.5%1-4+0.7%2 2-05.3%2-17.3%2-25.1%2-32.4%2-4+1.1%3 3-05.6%3-17.7%3-25.4%3-32.5%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-09.7%4+-113.4%4+-29.3%4+-34.3%4+-4+2.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.3% 70.9% 1.41 -16.4%

Draw 16.5% 18.9% 5.30 -7.5%

Away win 24.2% 17.2% 5.80 +24.2%

Over 2.5 72.0% 78.1% 1.28 -7.8%

Over 3.5 52.0% 58.8% 1.70 -11.6%

BTTS 63.1% 71.4% 1.40 -11.7%

Home O1.5 77.3% 80.0% 1.25 -3.4%

Away O1.5 40.9% 39.2% 2.55 +4.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -18.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 7-1

xG (home)3.2 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.1%

H 59% / xG 3.2-1.4 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.7%

#2 1–2 3.2%

#3 2–1 7.3%

#4 1–1 4.6%

#5 2–2 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Inter Miami3.2

CF Montreal1.4

COMBINED 4.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.0% · O3.5 PROB 52.0%

Form & verdict PPG

INTER MIAMI · PPG 1.44

CF MONTREAL · PPG 0.70

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.77 for Home, form 1.44 vs 0.70 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Inter Miami (H) 59.3%

ODDS 1.41 · IMPLIED 70.9% EV -16.4%

Draw 16.5%

ODDS 5.30 · IMPLIED 18.9% EV -7.5%

CF Montreal (A) 24.2%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV +24.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Inter Miami face CF Montreal in USA - MLS on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Inter Miami a 59% chance, the draw 17% and CF Montreal 24%, so Inter Miami are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.2 for Inter Miami and 1.4 for CF Montreal (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Inter Miami are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 0.70 for CF Montreal. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +4.3%. This match finished 7-1.

Inter Miami vs CF Montreal Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

More USA - MLS Predictions