Today / USA - MLS / Minnesota United FC vs Orlando City SC

Minnesota United FC vs Orlando City SC Prediction— USA - MLS

Matchday 22 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 00:30

Minnesota United FC

PPG 1.10 · HOME

LAST 5

DDLWD

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Orlando City SC

PPG 0.70 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLWD

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.8% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-13.8%0-22.1%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-07.8%1-18.6%1-24.7%1-31.7%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.9%2-19.8%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.7%3-17.4%3-24.1%3-31.5%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-06.4%4+-17.1%4+-23.9%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.3% 55.2% 1.81 +1.9%

Draw 21.8% 25.3% 3.95 -8.3%

Away win 21.8% 26.3% 3.80 -10.3%

Over 2.5 63.9% 66.7% 1.50 -4.2%

Over 3.5 42.5% 44.4% 2.25 -4.4%

BTTS 60.8% 67.6% 1.48 -10.0%

Home O1.5 65.8% 62.5% 1.60 +5.3%

Away O1.5 33.0% 41.7% 2.40 -20.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -18.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob60.8%

H 56% / xG 2.3-1.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.6%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.9%

#4 3–1 7.4%

#5 1–2 4.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Minnesota United FC2.3

Orlando City SC1.1

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 42.5%

Form & verdict PPG

MINNESOTA UNITED FC · PPG 1.10

ORLANDO CITY SC · PPG 0.70

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.16 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Minnesota United FC (H) 56.3%

ODDS 1.81 · IMPLIED 55.2% EV +1.9%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -8.3%

Orlando City SC (A) 21.8%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -10.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Minnesota United FC face Orlando City SC in USA - MLS on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Minnesota United FC a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Orlando City SC 22%, so Minnesota United FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Minnesota United FC and 1.1 for Orlando City SC (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Minnesota United FC are averaging 1.10 points per game versus 0.70 for Orlando City SC. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +14.2%. This match finished 3-3.

Minnesota United FC vs Orlando City SC Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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