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Toronto FC vs New York City FC Prediction— USA - MLS

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 23:30

Toronto FC

PPG 1.36 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDWD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

New York City FC

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLDD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.6% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-16.5%0-24.5%0-32.1%0-4+1.0%1 1-07.8%1-110.9%1-27.6%1-33.5%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.5%2-19.1%2-26.3%2-32.9%2-4+1.4%3 3-03.6%3-15.0%3-23.5%3-31.6%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-13.1%4+-22.1%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.6% 41.7% 2.40 +11.8%

Draw 23.9% 27.4% 3.65 -7.7%

Away win 29.5% 37.9% 2.64 -13.3%

Over 2.5 61.6% 61.7% 1.62 -0.2%

Over 3.5 38.7% 39.2% 2.55 -1.3%

BTTS 60.8% 66.7% 1.50 -8.8%

Home O1.5 48.9% 50.0% 2.00 -2.2%

Away O1.5 40.9% 47.6% 2.10 -14.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -18.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob60.8%

H 47% / xG 1.7-1.4 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 10.9%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–2 7.6%

#4 2–0 6.5%

#5 1–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Toronto FC1.7

New York City FC1.4

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.6% · O3.5 PROB 38.7%

Form & verdict PPG

TORONTO FC · PPG 1.36

NEW YORK CITY FC · PPG 1.20

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.28 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Toronto FC (H) 46.6%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +11.8%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -7.7%

New York City FC (A) 29.5%

ODDS 2.64 · IMPLIED 37.9% EV -13.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Toronto FC face New York City FC in USA - MLS on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Toronto FC a 47% chance, the draw 24% and New York City FC 30%, so Toronto FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Toronto FC and 1.4 for New York City FC (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Toronto FC are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 1.20 for New York City FC. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +2.6%. This match finished 1-1.

Toronto FC vs New York City FC Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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