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New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union Prediction— USA - MLS

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 23:30

New York Red Bulls

PPG 1.36 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLDL

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Philadelphia Union

PPG 0.73 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.1% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-14.0%0-23.0%0-31.5%0-4+0.8%1 1-05.5%1-18.4%1-26.4%1-33.3%1-4+1.8%2 2-05.9%2-18.9%2-26.8%2-33.5%2-4+1.9%3 3-04.1%3-16.3%3-24.8%3-32.5%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-15.5%4+-24.2%4+-32.1%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.4% 34.2% 2.92 +38.4%

Draw 22.7% 25.3% 3.95 -6.2%

Away win 29.9% 47.2% 2.12 -22.0%

Over 2.5 65.1% 71.4% 1.40 -8.9%

Over 3.5 43.2% 50.0% 2.00 -13.6%

BTTS 63.1% 73.5% 1.36 -14.2%

Home O1.5 59.6% 52.4% 1.91 +13.8%

Away O1.5 47.9% 61.7% 1.62 -22.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -18.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.1%

H 47% / xG 2.1-1.5 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.4%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 1–2 6.4%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 3–1 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

New York Red Bulls2.1

Philadelphia Union1.5

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.1% · O3.5 PROB 43.2%

Form & verdict PPG

NEW YORK RED BULLS · PPG 1.36

PHILADELPHIA UNION · PPG 0.73

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.59 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

New York Red Bulls (H) 47.4%

ODDS 2.92 · IMPLIED 34.2% EV +38.4%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -6.2%

Philadelphia Union (A) 29.9%

ODDS 2.12 · IMPLIED 47.2% EV -22.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

New York Red Bulls face Philadelphia Union in USA - MLS on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives New York Red Bulls a 47% chance, the draw 23% and Philadelphia Union 30%, so New York Red Bulls are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for New York Red Bulls and 1.5 for Philadelphia Union (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, New York Red Bulls are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 0.73 for Philadelphia Union. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +33.6%. This match finished 1-3.

New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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