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San Diego vs Los Angeles Galaxy Prediction— USA - MLS

Matchday 22 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 02:30

San Diego

PPG 1.64 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLWW

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Los Angeles Galaxy

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-14.6%0-22.4%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.1%1-19.6%1-25.0%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.5%2-19.9%2-25.2%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.5%3-16.9%3-23.6%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-05.5%4+-15.7%4+-23.0%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.7% 57.8% 1.73 -7.1%

Draw 23.2% 23.3% 4.30 -0.1%

Away win 23.1% 25.6% 3.90 -5.9%

Over 2.5 59.7% 72.5% 1.38 -17.6%

Over 3.5 36.7% 50.0% 2.00 -26.6%

BTTS 55.0% 71.4% 1.40 -23.0%

Home O1.5 59.6% 67.6% 1.48 -11.8%

Away O1.5 32.6% 44.4% 2.25 -26.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -18.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.0%

H 54% / xG 2.1-1.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.5%

#4 1–0 9.1%

#5 1–2 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

San Diego2.1

Los Angeles Galaxy1.0

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SAN DIEGO · PPG 1.64

LOS ANGELES GALAXY · PPG 1.18

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.02 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

San Diego (H) 53.7%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -7.1%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 4.30 · IMPLIED 23.3% EV -0.1%

Los Angeles Galaxy (A) 23.1%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -5.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

San Diego face Los Angeles Galaxy in USA - MLS on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Diego a 54% chance, the draw 23% and Los Angeles Galaxy 23%, so San Diego are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for San Diego and 1.0 for Los Angeles Galaxy (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Diego are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 1.18 for Los Angeles Galaxy. This match finished 3-1.

San Diego vs Los Angeles Galaxy Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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