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Houston Dynamo vs San Jose Earthquakes Prediction— USA - MLS

Matchday 22 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 00:30

Houston Dynamo

PPG 2.20 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWLD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

San Jose Earthquakes

PPG 2.11 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLLD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.1% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-18.3%0-24.8%0-31.8%0-4+0.7%1 1-010.7%1-112.3%1-27.1%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.9%2-19.1%2-25.2%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.9%3-14.5%3-22.6%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.3%4+-21.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.5% 63.3% 1.58 -24.9%

Draw 24.8% 23.3% 4.30 +4.0%

Away win 27.6% 20.0% 5.00 +22.8%

Over 2.5 53.4% 66.7% 1.50 -19.9%

Over 3.5 31.5% 44.4% 2.25 -29.1%

BTTS 54.1% 64.5% 1.55 -16.1%

Home O1.5 40.1% 67.6% 1.48 -40.6%

Away O1.5 33.0% 34.7% 2.88 -5.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -18.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.1%

H 48% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–0 10.7%

#4 2–0 7.9%

#5 0–0✓ 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Houston Dynamo1.5

San Jose Earthquakes1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

HOUSTON DYNAMO · PPG 2.20

SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES · PPG 2.11

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.32 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Houston Dynamo (H) 47.5%

ODDS 1.58 · IMPLIED 63.3% EV -24.9%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 4.30 · IMPLIED 23.3% EV +4.0%

San Jose Earthquakes (A) 27.6%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +22.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Houston Dynamo face San Jose Earthquakes in USA - MLS on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Houston Dynamo a 48% chance, the draw 25% and San Jose Earthquakes 28%, so Houston Dynamo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Houston Dynamo and 1.1 for San Jose Earthquakes (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Houston Dynamo are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 2.11 for San Jose Earthquakes. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +20.0%. This match finished 0-0.

Houston Dynamo vs San Jose Earthquakes Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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