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Colorado Rapids vs Real Salt Lake Prediction— USA - MLS

Matchday 22 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 01:30

Colorado Rapids

PPG 2.10 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWLW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Real Salt Lake

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-15.2%0-22.7%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.7%1-110.2%1-25.3%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.5%2-19.9%2-25.2%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.2%3-16.5%3-23.4%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-04.7%4+-15.0%4+-22.6%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.1% 52.6% 1.90 +0.9%

Draw 23.2% 26.3% 3.80 -7.1%

Away win 23.7% 28.2% 3.55 -9.5%

Over 2.5 59.7% 61.7% 1.62 -3.3%

Over 3.5 36.7% 39.2% 2.55 -6.4%

BTTS 55.0% 64.5% 1.55 -14.8%

Home O1.5 56.3% 57.8% 1.73 -2.6%

Away O1.5 32.6% 39.2% 2.55 -16.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -18.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.0%

H 53% / xG 2.0-1.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.5%

#4 1–0✓ 9.7%

#5 1–2 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Colorado Rapids2.0

Real Salt Lake1.0

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

COLORADO RAPIDS · PPG 2.10

REAL SALT LAKE · PPG 0.60

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.91 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Colorado Rapids (H) 53.1%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV +0.9%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -7.1%

Real Salt Lake (A) 23.7%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -9.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Colorado Rapids face Real Salt Lake in USA - MLS on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Colorado Rapids a 53% chance, the draw 23% and Real Salt Lake 24%, so Colorado Rapids are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Colorado Rapids and 1.0 for Real Salt Lake (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Colorado Rapids are averaging 2.10 points per game versus 0.60 for Real Salt Lake. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +9.8%. This match finished 1-0.

Colorado Rapids vs Real Salt Lake Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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