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Columbus Crew vs New England Revolution Prediction— USA - MLS

Matchday 22 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 20:30

Columbus Crew

PPG 1.40 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLLL

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

New England Revolution

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWDW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.0% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-18.2%0-25.0%0-32.0%0-4+0.8%1 1-010.0%1-112.1%1-27.4%1-33.0%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.4%2-19.0%2-25.5%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.7%3-14.4%3-22.7%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.3%4+-21.4%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.7% 47.2% 2.12 -13.7%

Draw 24.1% 27.0% 3.70 -6.5%

Away win 35.1% 32.8% 3.05 +7.0%

Over 2.5 53.5% 60.6% 1.65 -11.7%

Over 3.5 31.9% 37.7% 2.65 -15.5%

BTTS 55.0% 64.5% 1.55 -14.8%

Home O1.5 40.1% 54.1% 1.85 -25.8%

Away O1.5 36.6% 42.6% 2.35 -14.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -18.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.0%

H 41% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–2 7.4%

#3 2–1 9.0%

#4 1–0 10.0%

#5 0–1 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Columbus Crew1.5

New England Revolution1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.9%

Form & verdict PPG

COLUMBUS CREW · PPG 1.40

NEW ENGLAND REVOLUTION · PPG 0.89

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.27 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Columbus Crew (H) 40.7%

ODDS 2.12 · IMPLIED 47.2% EV -13.7%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -6.5%

New England Revolution (A) 35.1%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV +7.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Columbus Crew face New England Revolution in USA - MLS on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Columbus Crew a 41% chance, the draw 24% and New England Revolution 35%, so Columbus Crew are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Columbus Crew and 1.2 for New England Revolution (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Columbus Crew are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.89 for New England Revolution. This match finished 1-3.

Columbus Crew vs New England Revolution Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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