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DC United vs Los Angeles FC Prediction— USA - MLS

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 23:30

DC United

PPG 1.20 · HOME

LAST 5

DDLLD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Los Angeles FC

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLDD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.3% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-110.3%0-27.4%0-33.6%0-4+1.8%1 1-08.5%1-112.3%1-28.9%1-34.3%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.1%2-17.4%2-25.3%2-32.6%2-4+1.3%3 3-02.0%3-12.9%3-22.1%3-31.0%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.1%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.1% 30.3% 3.30 +2.6%

Draw 26.7% 26.7% 3.75 +0.1%

Away win 42.2% 49.5% 2.02 -14.8%

Over 2.5 51.2% 61.7% 1.62 -17.1%

Over 3.5 30.7% 39.2% 2.55 -21.7%

BTTS 54.3% 65.4% 1.53 -16.9%

Home O1.5 32.2% 41.7% 2.40 -22.7%

Away O1.5 40.9% 55.6% 1.80 -26.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -18.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob54.3%

A 42% / xG 1.2-1.4 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 1–2 8.9%

#3 0–1 10.3%

#4 0–0✓ 7.1%

#5 2–1 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

DC United1.2

Los Angeles FC1.4

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.2% · O3.5 PROB 30.7%

Form & verdict PPG

DC UNITED · PPG 1.20

LOS ANGELES FC · PPG 1.20

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.25 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

DC United (H) 31.1%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +2.6%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +0.1%

Los Angeles FC (A) 42.2%

ODDS 2.02 · IMPLIED 49.5% EV -14.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

DC United face Los Angeles FC in USA - MLS on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives DC United a 31% chance, the draw 27% and Los Angeles FC 42%, so Los Angeles FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for DC United and 1.4 for Los Angeles FC (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, DC United are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.20 for Los Angeles FC. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +2.4%. This match finished 0-0.

DC United vs Los Angeles FC Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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