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Seattle Sounders vs Chicago Fire Prediction— USA - MLS

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 20:30

Seattle Sounders

PPG 1.44 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLDD

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Chicago Fire

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWDD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-19.0%0-26.1%0-32.7%0-4+1.2%1 1-09.0%1-112.2%1-28.3%1-33.7%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.1%2-18.3%2-25.6%2-32.5%2-4+1.2%3 3-02.8%3-13.8%3-22.5%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.7%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.4% 36.5% 2.74 -0.3%

Draw 25.1% 26.7% 3.75 -3.5%

Away win 38.5% 43.9% 2.28 -12.2%

Over 2.5 53.5% 64.5% 1.55 -17.1%

Over 3.5 31.5% 42.6% 2.35 -26.0%

BTTS 54.7% 69.0% 1.45 -20.7%

Home O1.5 38.0% 48.8% 2.05 -22.1%

Away O1.5 40.9% 54.1% 1.85 -24.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -18.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob54.7%

A 38% / xG 1.4-1.4 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–2 8.3%

#3 2–1 8.3%

#4 0–1 9.0%

#5 1–0 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Seattle Sounders1.4

Chicago Fire1.4

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SEATTLE SOUNDERS · PPG 1.44

CHICAGO FIRE · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.01 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Seattle Sounders (H) 36.4%

ODDS 2.74 · IMPLIED 36.5% EV -0.3%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -3.5%

Chicago Fire (A) 38.5%

ODDS 2.28 · IMPLIED 43.9% EV -12.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Seattle Sounders face Chicago Fire in USA - MLS on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Seattle Sounders a 36% chance, the draw 25% and Chicago Fire 39%, so Chicago Fire are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Seattle Sounders and 1.4 for Chicago Fire (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Seattle Sounders are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 1.33 for Chicago Fire. This match finished 2-2.

Seattle Sounders vs Chicago Fire Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

More USA - MLS Predictions