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Portland Timbers vs Austin Prediction— USA - MLS

Matchday 22 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 02:30

Portland Timbers

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWDL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Austin

PPG 0.55 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.2% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-12.2%0-21.3%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-05.6%1-16.3%1-23.5%1-31.3%1-4+0.5%2 2-07.8%2-18.7%2-24.9%2-31.8%2-4+0.7%3 3-07.2%3-18.1%3-24.6%3-31.7%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-010.0%4+-111.2%4+-26.3%4+-32.3%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.2% 63.3% 1.58 -1.7%

Draw 17.7% 22.7% 4.40 -13.3%

Away win 20.1% 20.8% 4.80 -2.1%

Over 2.5 68.2% 67.6% 1.48 +0.9%

Over 3.5 45.0% 45.5% 2.20 -1.0%

BTTS 60.8% 65.4% 1.53 -7.0%

Home O1.5 66.4% 69.0% 1.45 -3.7%

Away O1.5 33.0% 35.7% 2.80 -7.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -18.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 71%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob60.8%

H 62% / xG 2.8-1.1 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.7%

#2 1–1 6.3%

#3 3–1 8.1%

#4 2–0 7.8%

#5 3–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Portland Timbers2.8

Austin1.1

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.2% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

PORTLAND TIMBERS · PPG 2.00

AUSTIN · PPG 0.55

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.67 for Home, form 2.00 vs 0.55 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Portland Timbers (H) 62.2%

ODDS 1.58 · IMPLIED 63.3% EV -1.7%

Draw 17.7%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -13.3%

Austin (A) 20.1%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -2.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Portland Timbers face Austin in USA - MLS on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Portland Timbers a 62% chance, the draw 18% and Austin 20%, so Portland Timbers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Portland Timbers and 1.1 for Austin (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Portland Timbers are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.55 for Austin. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +29.4%. This match finished 1-2.

Portland Timbers vs Austin Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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