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St. Louis City vs FC Dallas Prediction— USA - MLS

Matchday 22 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 23:00

St. Louis City

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDWD

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

FC Dallas

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWLD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.5% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-16.1%0-23.6%0-31.4%0-4+0.6%1 1-09.1%1-110.8%1-26.4%1-32.6%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.1%2-19.7%2-25.8%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.8%3-15.8%3-23.4%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-13.9%4+-22.3%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.0% 50.8% 1.97 +2.4%

Draw 22.8% 26.7% 3.75 -8.7%

Away win 25.2% 29.9% 3.35 -9.3%

Over 2.5 59.9% 63.7% 1.57 -6.0%

Over 3.5 37.8% 41.7% 2.40 -9.3%

BTTS 60.5% 66.7% 1.50 -9.3%

Home O1.5 48.9% 57.8% 1.73 -15.4%

Away O1.5 34.5% 42.6% 2.35 -18.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -18.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob60.5%

H 52% / xG 1.8-1.2 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.1%

#4 1–0 9.1%

#5 1–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

St. Louis City1.8

FC Dallas1.2

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.9% · O3.5 PROB 37.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ST. LOUIS CITY · PPG 2.00

FC DALLAS · PPG 1.67

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.60 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

St. Louis City (H) 52.0%

ODDS 1.97 · IMPLIED 50.8% EV +2.4%

Draw 22.8%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -8.7%

FC Dallas (A) 25.2%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -9.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

St. Louis City face FC Dallas in USA - MLS on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives St. Louis City a 52% chance, the draw 23% and FC Dallas 25%, so St. Louis City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for St. Louis City and 1.2 for FC Dallas (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, St. Louis City are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.67 for FC Dallas. This match finished 3-3.

St. Louis City vs FC Dallas Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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