Super League

SWITZERLAND · 31 MATCHES TRACKED · 18 APR 2026 – 17 MAY 2026

▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE

SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE

// Model accuracy

How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 31 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.

58.1%

1X2

18/31

67.7%

O/U 2.5

21/31

58.1%

BTTS

18/31

25.8%

Exact score

8/31

// Published picks

Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.

Settled

64.5%

Hit rate

20/31

1.47

Avg odds

-6.1%

ROI

-1.9u

Picks by market

FLAT 1U · BREAK-EVEN AT IMPLIED % MARKED ▎· SMALL SAMPLES — READ WITH CARE

OVER 2.5 · N=19 78.9% HIT · AVG 1.47 · +16.1% ROI

BTTS · N=11 45.5% HIT · AVG 1.44 · -35.7% ROI

HOME WIN · N=1 0.0% HIT · AVG 1.90 · -100.0% ROI

Picks by verdict tier

VERDICTS NORMALIZED INTO CONFIDENCE TIERS · LOW-CONFIDENCE FLAG OVERRIDES

🎯 Strong bet

Bets

100%

Hit

+34.0%

ROI

✓ Fair / Caution

Bets

50%

Hit

-24.5%

ROI

⚠ Low confidence

Bets

67%

Hit

-2.9%

ROI

Match log

31 RESOLVED · GROUPED BY MONTH · — MEANS NO PICK PUBLISHED

DateMatchPickEVFTResult

May 2026 // 15 PICKS · 9 HIT · 6 MISS

17 MAY St. Gallen vs Thun Over 2.5 -14% 1–1 MISS 17 MAY Lugano vs FC Basel Over 2.5 -15% 4–0 HIT 17 MAY BSC Young Boys vs Sion Over 2.5 -11% 3–3 HIT 16 MAY FC Zurich vs Servette Over 2.5 -2% 0–2 MISS 16 MAY Winterthur vs Luzern Over 2.5 -15% 0–3 HIT 16 MAY Lausanne Sport vs Grasshopper Over 2.5 -9% 1–3 HIT 14 MAY Sion vs Lugano BTTS -21% 2–2 HIT 14 MAY Thun vs BSC Young Boys Over 2.5 -15% 3–8 HIT 14 MAY FC Basel vs St. Gallen Over 2.5 -16% 1–3 HIT 12 MAY Luzern vs FC Zurich Over 2.5 -8% 1–0 MISS 12 MAY Servette vs Lausanne Sport Over 2.5 -2% 2–0 MISS 12 MAY Grasshopper vs Winterthur Over 2.5 +3% 3–2 HIT 10 MAY Lugano vs St. Gallen Over 2.5 -7% 1–2 HIT 10 MAY Sion vs Thun BTTS -18% 2–0 MISS 10 MAY BSC Young Boys vs FC Basel BTTS -17% 3–0 MISS