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FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion Prediction— Switzerland - Super League

Matchday 6 ·Thursday, September 3, 2026, 18:30

FC Basel 1893

PPG 1.54 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWWD

UPCOMING

FC Sion

PPG 1.27 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWL ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.0% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-15.3%0-23.9%0-31.9%0-4+1.0%1 1-06.7%1-19.8%1-27.2%1-33.5%1-4+1.8%2 2-06.2%2-19.1%2-26.7%2-33.3%2-4+1.7%3 3-03.8%3-15.6%3-24.1%3-32.0%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-14.0%4+-22.9%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.6% 40.0% 2.50 +16.5%

Draw 23.5% 27.4% 3.65 -8.5%

Away win 29.9% 39.2% 2.55 -14.2%

Over 2.5 65.0% 66.7% 1.50 -2.5%

Over 3.5 44.9% 44.4% 2.25 +1.0%

BTTS 63.5% 71.4% 1.40 -11.1%

Home O1.5 55.8% 52.6% 1.90 +6.0%

Away O1.5 42.2% 52.4% 1.91 -19.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 29%

ROI 19.9%

Bet Hit 78%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.5%

H 47% / xG 1.9-1.5 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–2 7.2%

#4 2–0 6.2%

#5 2–2 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Basel 18931.9

FC Sion1.5

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.9%

Form & verdict PPG

FC BASEL 1893 · PPG 1.54

FC SION · PPG 1.27

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.39 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

FC Basel 1893 (H) 46.6%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +16.5%

Draw 23.5%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -8.5%

FC Sion (A) 29.9%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -14.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Basel 1893 face FC Sion in Switzerland - Super League on Thursday, September 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Basel 1893 a 47% chance, the draw 24% and FC Sion 30%, so FC Basel 1893 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for FC Basel 1893 and 1.5 for FC Sion (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Basel 1893 are averaging 1.54 points per game versus 1.27 for FC Sion. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +10.9%.

FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion Prediction— Switzerland - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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