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FC Sion vs FC Lugano Prediction— Switzerland - Super League

Matchday 5 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 12:00

FC Sion

PPG 2.06 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWL ·

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

FC Lugano

PPG 1.73 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWW ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.3% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-15.9%0-24.7%0-32.6%0-4+1.5%1 1-06.2%1-110.0%1-28.1%1-34.3%1-4+2.5%2 2-05.2%2-18.5%2-26.8%2-33.7%2-4+2.1%3 3-03.0%3-14.8%3-23.9%3-32.1%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-13.0%4+-22.4%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.8% 45.5% 2.20 -14.6%

Draw 22.8% 30.8% 3.25 -15.5%

Away win 38.4% 33.3% 3.00 +15.2%

Over 2.5 64.3% 65.4% 1.53 -1.6%

Over 3.5 43.2% 44.4% 2.25 -2.8%

BTTS 63.1% 69.4% 1.44 -9.1%

Home O1.5 48.9% 55.6% 1.80 -12.0%

Away O1.5 47.9% 45.5% 2.20 +5.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 29%

ROI 19.9%

Bet Hit 78%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.1%

H 39% / xG 1.7-1.6 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.0%

#2 1–2✓ 8.1%

#3 2–1 8.5%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 2–0 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Sion1.7

FC Lugano1.6

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.3% · O3.5 PROB 43.2%

Form & verdict PPG

FC SION · PPG 2.06

FC LUGANO · PPG 1.73

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.08 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

FC Sion (H) 38.8%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -14.6%

Draw 22.8%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -15.5%

FC Lugano (A) 38.4%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +15.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Sion face FC Lugano in Switzerland - Super League on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Sion a 39% chance, the draw 23% and FC Lugano 38%, so FC Sion are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for FC Sion and 1.6 for FC Lugano (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Sion are averaging 2.06 points per game versus 1.73 for FC Lugano. The best value bet our model finds is RES_A/O15, with an expected value of +10.0%. This match finished 1-2.

FC Sion vs FC Lugano Prediction— Switzerland - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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