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FC Basel 1893 vs FC Thun Prediction— Switzerland - Super League

Matchday 3 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 14:30

FC Basel 1893

PPG 1.16 · HOME

4 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

FC Thun

PPG 2.09 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.6% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-17.4%0-24.7%0-32.0%0-4+0.9%1 1-09.1%1-111.6%1-27.5%1-33.2%1-4+1.4%2 2-07.1%2-19.1%2-25.8%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-03.7%3-14.8%3-23.1%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.7%4+-21.7%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.4% 56.5% 1.77 -23.2%

Draw 27.5% 24.4% 4.10 +7.6%

Away win 29.1% 26.3% 3.80 +6.3%

Over 2.5 52.3% 70.4% 1.42 -25.7%

Over 3.5 32.3% 48.8% 2.05 -33.8%

BTTS 53.6% 70.4% 1.42 -23.9%

Home O1.5 46.6% 65.4% 1.53 -28.7%

Away O1.5 35.7% 43.5% 2.30 -17.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 27%

ROI 19.9%

Bet Hit 78%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob53.6%

H 43% / xG 1.6-1.3 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 0–0 5.8%

#4 1–2 7.5%

#5 1–0 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Basel 18931.6

FC Thun1.3

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.3% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

FC BASEL 1893 · PPG 1.16

FC THUN · PPG 2.09

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.29 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

FC Basel 1893 (H) 43.4%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV -23.2%

Draw 27.5%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +7.6%

FC Thun (A) 29.1%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +6.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Basel 1893 face FC Thun in Switzerland - Super League on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Basel 1893 a 43% chance, the draw 28% and FC Thun 29%, so FC Basel 1893 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for FC Basel 1893 and 1.3 for FC Thun (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Basel 1893 are averaging 1.16 points per game versus 2.09 for FC Thun. This match finished 4-2.

FC Basel 1893 vs FC Thun Prediction— Switzerland - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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