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BSC Young Boys vs FC Basel 1893 Prediction— Switzerland - Super League

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 18:30

BSC Young Boys

PPG 2.01 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWDW

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

FC Basel 1893

PPG 1.87 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWWD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.2% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-13.6%0-22.6%0-31.2%0-4+0.6%1 1-05.6%1-18.0%1-25.8%1-32.8%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.3%2-19.1%2-26.6%2-33.2%2-4+1.6%3 3-04.7%3-16.8%3-24.9%3-32.4%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-04.5%4+-16.5%4+-24.7%4+-32.3%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.0% 61.7% 1.62 -14.1%

Draw 22.2% 23.1% 4.33 -2.3%

Away win 24.8% 22.2% 4.50 +7.0%

Over 2.5 68.2% 75.2% 1.33 -9.3%

Over 3.5 46.4% 55.6% 1.80 -16.5%

BTTS 63.1% 74.1% 1.35 -14.8%

Home O1.5 65.8% 73.5% 1.36 -10.5%

Away O1.5 40.9% 45.5% 2.20 -10.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 29%

ROI 19.9%

Bet Hit 78%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.1%

H 53% / xG 2.3-1.4 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.0%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 3–1 6.8%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 1–2 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

BSC Young Boys2.3

FC Basel 18931.4

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.2% · O3.5 PROB 46.4%

Form & verdict PPG

BSC YOUNG BOYS · PPG 2.01

FC BASEL 1893 · PPG 1.87

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.81 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

BSC Young Boys (H) 53.0%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -14.1%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -2.3%

FC Basel 1893 (A) 24.8%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +7.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

BSC Young Boys face FC Basel 1893 in Switzerland - Super League on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives BSC Young Boys a 53% chance, the draw 22% and FC Basel 1893 25%, so BSC Young Boys are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for BSC Young Boys and 1.4 for FC Basel 1893 (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, BSC Young Boys are averaging 2.01 points per game versus 1.87 for FC Basel 1893. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +10.1%. This match finished 3-3.

BSC Young Boys vs FC Basel 1893 Prediction— Switzerland - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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