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FC Thun vs Lausanne Prediction— Switzerland - Super League

Matchday 6 ·Wednesday, September 2, 2026, 18:30

FC Thun

PPG 1.52 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLW ·

UPCOMING

Lausanne

PPG 1.27 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.4% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-14.9%0-23.8%0-32.0%0-4+1.1%1 1-06.0%1-19.3%1-27.3%1-33.8%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.7%2-18.8%2-26.9%2-33.6%2-4+2.0%3 3-03.6%3-15.6%3-24.4%3-32.3%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-14.1%4+-23.2%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.9% 50.0% 2.00 -12.2%

Draw 21.1% 27.0% 3.70 -13.2%

Away win 35.0% 30.3% 3.30 +15.5%

Over 2.5 68.4% 66.7% 1.50 +2.6%

Over 3.5 45.0% 46.5% 2.15 -3.3%

BTTS 63.5% 71.4% 1.40 -11.1%

Home O1.5 55.8% 59.9% 1.67 -6.8%

Away O1.5 47.9% 46.5% 2.15 +3.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 29%

ROI 19.9%

Bet Hit 78%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.5%

H 44% / xG 1.9-1.6 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.3%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–2 7.3%

#4 2–2 6.9%

#5 2–0 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Thun1.9

Lausanne1.6

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

FC THUN · PPG 1.52

LAUSANNE · PPG 1.27

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.33 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

FC Thun (H) 43.9%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -12.2%

Draw 21.1%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -13.2%

Lausanne (A) 35.0%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +15.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Thun face Lausanne in Switzerland - Super League on Wednesday, September 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Thun a 44% chance, the draw 21% and Lausanne 35%, so FC Thun are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for FC Thun and 1.6 for Lausanne (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Thun are averaging 1.52 points per game versus 1.27 for Lausanne. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +5.9%.

FC Thun vs Lausanne Prediction— Switzerland - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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