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FC Zurich vs FC Basel 1893 Prediction— Switzerland - Super League

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 18:30

FC Zurich

PPG 1.57 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLWL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

FC Basel 1893

PPG 1.68 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWWD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.9% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-18.3%0-26.7%0-33.6%0-4+2.1%1 1-07.0%1-111.2%1-29.0%1-34.8%1-4+2.8%2 2-04.8%2-17.6%2-26.1%2-33.3%2-4+1.9%3 3-02.2%3-13.5%3-22.8%3-31.5%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.6%4+-21.3%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.9% 29.9% 3.35 +6.9%

Draw 24.3% 27.0% 3.70 -6.0%

Away win 43.8% 50.0% 2.00 -12.4%

Over 2.5 59.7% 62.5% 1.60 -4.5%

Over 3.5 36.6% 40.8% 2.45 -10.3%

BTTS 60.9% 66.7% 1.50 -8.6%

Home O1.5 37.8% 42.0% 2.38 -10.0%

Away O1.5 48.5% 56.5% 1.77 -14.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 29%

ROI 19.9%

Bet Hit 78%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 48%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob60.9%

A 44% / xG 1.4-1.6 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 1–2✓ 9.0%

#3 2–1 7.6%

#4 0–2 6.7%

#5 0–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Zurich1.4

FC Basel 18931.6

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

FC ZURICH · PPG 1.57

FC BASEL 1893 · PPG 1.68

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.25 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

FC Zurich (H) 31.9%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +6.9%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -6.0%

FC Basel 1893 (A) 43.8%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -12.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Zurich face FC Basel 1893 in Switzerland - Super League on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Zurich a 32% chance, the draw 24% and FC Basel 1893 44%, so FC Basel 1893 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for FC Zurich and 1.6 for FC Basel 1893 (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Zurich are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 1.68 for FC Basel 1893. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +5.9%. This match finished 1-2.

FC Zurich vs FC Basel 1893 Prediction— Switzerland - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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