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FC Luzern vs Lausanne Prediction— Switzerland - Super League

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 16:00

FC Luzern

PPG 1.07 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDWD

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Lausanne

PPG 1.48 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.2% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-16.7%0-25.2%0-32.7%0-4+1.4%1 1-07.0%1-110.7%1-28.2%1-34.2%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.5%2-18.5%2-26.6%2-33.4%2-4+1.8%3 3-02.9%3-14.5%3-23.5%3-31.8%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.6%4+-22.0%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.2% 51.3% 1.95 -27.5%

Draw 23.9% 26.0% 3.85 -4.8%

Away win 38.9% 29.4% 3.40 +32.3%

Over 2.5 60.2% 66.7% 1.50 -9.7%

Over 3.5 36.9% 44.4% 2.25 -17.0%

BTTS 61.3% 69.4% 1.44 -11.7%

Home O1.5 47.4% 60.6% 1.65 -21.8%

Away O1.5 48.5% 44.4% 2.25 +9.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 29%

ROI 19.9%

Bet Hit 78%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob61.3%

A 39% / xG 1.6-1.5 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 1–2 8.2%

#3 2–1 8.5%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 0–2 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Luzern1.6

Lausanne1.5

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.2% · O3.5 PROB 36.9%

Form & verdict PPG

FC LUZERN · PPG 1.07

LAUSANNE · PPG 1.48

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.05 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

FC Luzern (H) 37.2%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -27.5%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -4.8%

Lausanne (A) 38.9%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +32.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Luzern face Lausanne in Switzerland - Super League on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Luzern a 37% chance, the draw 24% and Lausanne 39%, so Lausanne are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for FC Luzern and 1.5 for Lausanne (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Luzern are averaging 1.07 points per game versus 1.48 for Lausanne. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +9.1%. This match finished 1-0.

FC Luzern vs Lausanne Prediction— Switzerland - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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