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FC ST. Gallen vs FC Luzern Prediction— Switzerland - Super League

Matchday 3 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 14:30

FC ST. Gallen

PPG 1.99 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

FC Luzern

PPG 1.19 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.6% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-12.5%0-21.4%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-06.0%1-16.7%1-23.7%1-31.4%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.0%2-19.0%2-25.0%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-07.2%3-18.1%3-24.5%3-31.7%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-09.3%4+-110.4%4+-25.8%4+-32.2%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.7% 52.6% 1.90 +17.2%

Draw 20.8% 25.3% 3.95 -10.7%

Away win 17.5% 29.0% 3.45 -23.8%

Over 2.5 63.6% 69.4% 1.44 -8.4%

Over 3.5 43.0% 48.8% 2.05 -11.8%

BTTS 54.6% 72.5% 1.38 -24.6%

Home O1.5 63.0% 63.7% 1.57 -1.1%

Away O1.5 35.4% 46.5% 2.15 -23.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 27%

ROI 19.9%

Bet Hit 78%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.6%

H 62% / xG 2.7-1.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.0%

#2 3–1 8.1%

#3 2–0 8.0%

#4 1–1 6.7%

#5 3–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC ST. Gallen2.7

FC Luzern1.1

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 43.0%

Form & verdict PPG

FC ST. GALLEN · PPG 1.99

FC LUZERN · PPG 1.19

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.58 for Home, form 1.99 vs 1.19 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

FC ST. Gallen (H) 61.7%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV +17.2%

Draw 20.8%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -10.7%

FC Luzern (A) 17.5%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -23.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC ST. Gallen face FC Luzern in Switzerland - Super League on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC ST. Gallen a 62% chance, the draw 21% and FC Luzern 18%, so FC ST. Gallen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for FC ST. Gallen and 1.1 for FC Luzern (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC ST. Gallen are averaging 1.99 points per game versus 1.19 for FC Luzern. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +13.3%. This match finished 2-2.

FC ST. Gallen vs FC Luzern Prediction— Switzerland - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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