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FC Luzern vs FC Vaduz Prediction— Switzerland - Super League

Matchday 6 ·Wednesday, September 2, 2026, 18:30

FC Luzern

PPG 1.34 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDWD

UPCOMING

FC Vaduz

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.4% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-13.6%0-23.1%0-31.8%0-4+1.2%1 1-04.4%1-17.7%1-26.7%1-33.9%1-4+2.6%2 2-04.7%2-18.2%2-27.2%2-34.2%2-4+2.7%3 3-03.3%3-15.8%3-25.1%3-33.0%3-4+1.9%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-15.1%4+-24.5%4+-32.6%4+-4+1.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.8% 62.5% 1.60 -26.7%

Draw 21.2% 21.7% 4.60 -1.5%

Away win 33.0% 23.1% 4.33 +42.9%

Over 2.5 68.4% 74.1% 1.35 -7.7%

Over 3.5 49.4% 52.6% 1.90 -6.1%

BTTS 66.1% 72.5% 1.38 -8.8%

Home O1.5 60.2% 71.4% 1.40 -15.7%

Away O1.5 47.9% 43.5% 2.30 +10.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 29%

ROI 19.9%

Bet Hit 78%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob66.1%

H 46% / xG 2.1-1.8 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.2%

#2 1–1 7.7%

#3 1–2 6.7%

#4 2–2 7.2%

#5 3–1 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Luzern2.1

FC Vaduz1.8

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 49.4%

Form & verdict PPG

FC LUZERN · PPG 1.34

FC VADUZ · PPG 0.94

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.39 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

FC Luzern (H) 45.8%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -26.7%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -1.5%

FC Vaduz (A) 33.0%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +42.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Luzern face FC Vaduz in Switzerland - Super League on Wednesday, September 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Luzern a 46% chance, the draw 21% and FC Vaduz 33%, so FC Luzern are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for FC Luzern and 1.8 for FC Vaduz (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Luzern are averaging 1.34 points per game versus 0.94 for FC Vaduz. The best value bet our model finds is RES_A/O15, with an expected value of +26.7%.

FC Luzern vs FC Vaduz Prediction— Switzerland - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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