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Servette FC vs FC Luzern Prediction— Switzerland - Super League

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 16:00

Servette FC

PPG 1.49 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWD ·

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

FC Luzern

PPG 1.27 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDWD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.8% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-15.6%0-23.8%0-31.7%0-4+0.8%1 1-07.6%1-110.2%1-26.9%1-33.1%1-4+1.4%2 2-07.0%2-19.4%2-26.4%2-32.9%2-4+1.3%3 3-04.3%3-15.8%3-23.9%3-31.8%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-14.0%4+-22.7%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.7% 54.1% 1.85 -13.6%

Draw 23.9% 25.3% 3.95 -3.4%

Away win 29.4% 27.4% 3.65 +4.4%

Over 2.5 59.8% 69.0% 1.45 -13.3%

Over 3.5 36.9% 47.6% 2.10 -22.5%

BTTS 60.8% 71.4% 1.40 -14.9%

Home O1.5 55.2% 63.7% 1.57 -13.3%

Away O1.5 40.9% 44.4% 2.25 -8.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 29%

ROI 19.9%

Bet Hit 78%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob60.8%

H 47% / xG 1.8-1.4 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 10.2%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–2 6.9%

#4 2–0 7.0%

#5 1–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Servette FC1.8

FC Luzern1.4

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.8% · O3.5 PROB 36.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SERVETTE FC · PPG 1.49

FC LUZERN · PPG 1.27

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.49 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Servette FC (H) 46.7%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -13.6%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -3.4%

FC Luzern (A) 29.4%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +4.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Servette FC face FC Luzern in Switzerland - Super League on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Servette FC a 47% chance, the draw 24% and FC Luzern 29%, so Servette FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Servette FC and 1.4 for FC Luzern (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Servette FC are averaging 1.49 points per game versus 1.27 for FC Luzern. This match finished 1-1.

Servette FC vs FC Luzern Prediction— Switzerland - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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