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Lausanne vs FC Zurich Prediction— Switzerland - Super League

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 16:00

Lausanne

PPG 1.22 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDLL

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

FC Zurich

PPG 0.77 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-15.4%0-23.1%0-31.2%0-4+0.5%1 1-08.8%1-110.3%1-26.0%1-32.3%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.4%2-19.8%2-25.7%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-05.4%3-16.3%3-23.6%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-14.6%4+-22.7%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.9% 57.1% 1.75 -7.4%

Draw 23.2% 26.3% 3.80 -7.1%

Away win 23.9% 23.8% 4.20 +0.2%

Over 2.5 59.7% 64.5% 1.55 -7.5%

Over 3.5 36.7% 42.6% 2.35 -13.8%

BTTS 59.9% 66.7% 1.50 -10.2%

Home O1.5 56.3% 62.5% 1.60 -9.9%

Away O1.5 33.0% 38.2% 2.62 -13.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 29%

ROI 19.9%

Bet Hit 78%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob59.9%

H 53% / xG 1.9-1.2 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.4%

#4 1–0 8.8%

#5 1–2 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lausanne1.9

FC Zurich1.2

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

LAUSANNE · PPG 1.22

FC ZURICH · PPG 0.77

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.75 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Lausanne (H) 52.9%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -7.4%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -7.1%

FC Zurich (A) 23.9%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +0.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lausanne face FC Zurich in Switzerland - Super League on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lausanne a 53% chance, the draw 23% and FC Zurich 24%, so Lausanne are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Lausanne and 1.2 for FC Zurich (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lausanne are averaging 1.22 points per game versus 0.77 for FC Zurich. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +2.0%. This match finished 2-3.

Lausanne vs FC Zurich Prediction— Switzerland - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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