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FC ST. Gallen vs FC Thun Prediction— Switzerland - Super League

Matchday 5 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 14:30

FC ST. Gallen

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDL ·

3 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

FC Thun

PPG 1.71 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLW ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.2% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-13.5%0-22.7%0-31.4%0-4+0.7%1 1-05.2%1-17.9%1-26.0%1-33.0%1-4+1.6%2 2-05.9%2-18.9%2-26.7%2-33.4%2-4+1.8%3 3-04.4%3-16.6%3-25.0%3-32.5%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-16.3%4+-24.8%4+-32.4%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.4% 61.7% 1.62 -15.1%

Draw 21.7% 25.0% 4.00 -7.9%

Away win 25.9% 22.2% 4.50 +9.9%

Over 2.5 68.2% 75.2% 1.33 -9.3%

Over 3.5 48.2% 55.6% 1.80 -13.2%

BTTS 63.1% 73.5% 1.36 -14.2%

Home O1.5 65.8% 73.5% 1.36 -10.5%

Away O1.5 45.8% 44.4% 2.25 +3.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 29%

ROI 19.9%

Bet Hit 78%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-4

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.1%

H 52% / xG 2.2-1.5 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.9%

#2 1–1 7.9%

#3 3–1 6.6%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 1–2 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC ST. Gallen2.2

FC Thun1.5

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.2% · O3.5 PROB 48.2%

Form & verdict PPG

FC ST. GALLEN · PPG 1.75

FC THUN · PPG 1.71

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.73 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

FC ST. Gallen (H) 52.4%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -15.1%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -7.9%

FC Thun (A) 25.9%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +9.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC ST. Gallen face FC Thun in Switzerland - Super League on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC ST. Gallen a 52% chance, the draw 22% and FC Thun 26%, so FC ST. Gallen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for FC ST. Gallen and 1.5 for FC Thun (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC ST. Gallen are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.71 for FC Thun. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +11.8%. This match finished 3-4.

FC ST. Gallen vs FC Thun Prediction— Switzerland - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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