PFL

PHILIPPINES · 30 MATCHES TRACKED · 18 APR 2026 – 30 MAY 2026

▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE

SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE

// Model accuracy

How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 30 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.

46.7%

1X2

14/30

63.3%

O/U 2.5

19/30

66.7%

BTTS

20/30

40.0%

Exact score

12/30

// Published picks

Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.

Settled

54.5%

Hit rate

6/11

1.49

Avg odds

-19.8%

ROI

-2.2u

Picks by market

FLAT 1U · BREAK-EVEN AT IMPLIED % MARKED ▎· SMALL SAMPLES — READ WITH CARE

OVER 2.5 · N=9 44.4% HIT · AVG 1.54 · -30.0% ROI

AWAY WIN · N=2 100.0% HIT · AVG 1.26 · +26.0% ROI

Picks by verdict tier

VERDICTS NORMALIZED INTO CONFIDENCE TIERS · LOW-CONFIDENCE FLAG OVERRIDES

🎯 Strong bet

Bets

100%

Hit

+26.0%

ROI

✓ Solid

Bets

Hit

-100.0%

ROI

✓ Fair / Caution

Bets

67%

Hit

+3.3%

ROI

⚠ Low confidence

Bets

40%

Hit

-36.0%

ROI

Match log

30 RESOLVED · GROUPED BY MONTH · — MEANS NO PICK PUBLISHED

DateMatchPickEVFTResult

May 2026 // 15 PICKS · 7 HIT · 8 MISS

30 MAY Stallion vs Davao Aguilas HO1.5 2–2 HIT 30 MAY DH Cebu vs Kaya FC Over 2.5 +4% 1–0 MISS 30 MAY Manila Digger vs One Taguig Over 2.5 -4% 1–1 MISS 27 MAY Davao Aguilas vs One Taguig AO1.5 1–1 MISS 27 MAY Kaya FC vs Manila Digger Over 2.5 +5% 0–3 HIT 24 MAY Mendiola vs Tuloy FC BTTS 1–4 HIT 24 MAY Maharlika vs Garelli Utd Over 3.5 3–2 HIT 23 MAY Manila Digger vs Stallion Over 2.5 1–1 MISS 23 MAY One Taguig vs Kaya FC Over 2.5 +9% 1–3 HIT 23 MAY DH Cebu vs Davao Aguilas Over 2.5 +11% 0–1 MISS 20 MAY Garelli Utd vs Philippine Army Over 3.5 8–1 HIT 20 MAY Tuloy FC vs Maharlika Over 3.5 1–1 MISS 20 MAY One Taguig vs DH Cebu Over 2.5 +4% 1–1 MISS 16 MAY DH Cebu vs Manila Digger Over 2.5 +2% 1–1 MISS 16 MAY Kaya FC vs Davao Aguilas Over 2.5 +19% 3–1 HIT