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Stallion vs Davao Aguilas Prediction— Philippines - PFL

Group Stage ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 07:30

Stallion

PPG 1.45 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Davao Aguilas

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.45), Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-13.2%0-22.4%0-31.2%0-4+0.7%1 1-04.9%1-17.5%1-25.7%1-32.9%1-4+1.5%2 2-05.8%2-18.8%2-26.7%2-33.4%2-4+1.8%3 3-04.5%3-16.8%3-25.2%3-32.6%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-04.6%4+-17.0%4+-25.3%4+-32.7%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.8% — — —

Draw 22.1% — — —

Away win 27.2% — — —

Over 2.5 65.4% — — —

Over 3.5 43.1% — — —

BTTS 63.4% — — —

Home O1.5 67.9% — — —

Away O1.5 44.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -19.8%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 64%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.4%

H 51% / xG 2.3-1.5 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.8%

#2 1–1 7.5%

#3 3–1 6.8%

#4 2–2✓ 6.7%

#5 2–0 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stallion2.3

Davao Aguilas1.5

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.4% · O3.5 PROB 43.1%

Form & verdict PPG

STALLION · PPG 1.45

DAVAO AGUILAS · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.45), Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Stallion (H) 50.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Davao Aguilas (A) 27.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Stallion face Davao Aguilas in Philippines - PFL on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stallion a 51% chance, the draw 22% and Davao Aguilas 27%, so Stallion are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Stallion and 1.5 for Davao Aguilas (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stallion are averaging 1.45 points per game versus 1.33 for Davao Aguilas. This match finished 2-2.

Stallion vs Davao Aguilas Prediction— Philippines - PFL

Match Preview & Prediction

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