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Tuloy FC vs Maharlika Prediction— Philippines - PFL

Group Stage ·Wednesday, May 20, 2026, 10:15

Tuloy FC

PPG 0.64 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O3.5

Maharlika

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 3.5

Combined xG of 7.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.0%0-10.3%0-20.7%0-31.4%0-4+10.4%1 1-00.1%1-10.5%1-21.5%1-32.9%1-4+21.3%2 2-00.1%2-10.6%2-21.6%2-32.9%2-4+21.9%3 3-00.1%3-10.4%3-21.1%3-32.0%3-4+15.0%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.3%4+-20.9%4+-31.7%4+-4+12.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 12.5% — — —

Draw 20.8% — — —

Away win 66.7% — — —

Over 2.5 85.3% — — —

Over 3.5 94.6% — — —

BTTS 66.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -19.8%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)5.6 BTTS prob66.7%

A 67% / xG 2.1-5.6 / O2.5 85% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–5 4.6%

#2 1–5 4.5%

#3 2–4 4.1%

#4 1–4 4.0%

#5 3–5 3.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tuloy FC2.1

Maharlika5.6

COMBINED 7.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 85.3% · O3.5 PROB 94.6%

Form & verdict PPG

TULOY FC · PPG 0.64

MAHARLIKA · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.64) vs Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Tuloy FC (H) 12.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Maharlika (A) 66.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Tuloy FC face Maharlika in Philippines - PFL on Wednesday, May 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tuloy FC a 13% chance, the draw 21% and Maharlika 67%, so Maharlika are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Tuloy FC and 5.6 for Maharlika (7.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-5. There is a 85% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tuloy FC are averaging 0.64 points per game versus 1.00 for Maharlika. This match finished 1-1.

Tuloy FC vs Maharlika Prediction— Philippines - PFL

Match Preview & Prediction

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