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DH Cebu vs Davao Aguilas Prediction— Philippines - PFL

Group Stage ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 13:00

DH Cebu

PPG 1.91 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Davao Aguilas

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.6% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4% — a clear edge.

+11.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.0%0-11.6%0-21.2%0-30.6%0-4+0.3%1 1-03.0%1-14.7%1-23.7%1-31.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-04.6%2-17.2%2-25.6%2-32.9%2-4+1.6%3 3-04.7%3-17.3%3-25.7%3-33.0%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-07.6%4+-111.9%4+-29.3%4+-34.8%4+-4+2.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.3% 69.4% 1.44 -14.6%

Draw 20.3% 23.1% 4.33 -7.3%

Away win 20.4% 19.0% 5.25 +4.3%

Over 2.5 72.6% 65.4% 1.53 +11.1%

Over 3.5 67.5% 44.1% 2.27 +53.2%

BTTS 63.0% 60.2% 1.66 +4.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -19.8%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.0%

H 59% / xG 3.0-1.6 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.3%

#2 2–1 7.2%

#3 3–2 5.7%

#4 2–2 5.6%

#5 4–1 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

DH Cebu3.0

Davao Aguilas1.6

COMBINED 4.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.6% · O3.5 PROB 67.5%

Form & verdict PPG

DH CEBU · PPG 1.91

DAVAO AGUILAS · PPG 1.18

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.91) > Away AVERAGE (1.18)

Win probability 1X2

DH Cebu (H) 59.3%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -14.6%

Draw 20.3%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -7.3%

Davao Aguilas (A) 20.4%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV +4.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

DH Cebu face Davao Aguilas in Philippines - PFL on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives DH Cebu a 59% chance, the draw 20% and Davao Aguilas 20%, so DH Cebu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for DH Cebu and 1.6 for Davao Aguilas (4.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, DH Cebu are averaging 1.91 points per game versus 1.18 for Davao Aguilas. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +53.2%. This match finished 0-1.

DH Cebu vs Davao Aguilas Prediction— Philippines - PFL

Match Preview & Prediction

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