Today / Philippines - PFL / One Taguig vs Kaya FC

One Taguig vs Kaya FC Prediction— Philippines - PFL

Group Stage ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 10:15

One Taguig

PPG 2.58 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Kaya FC

PPG 1.90 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-13.9%0-22.4%0-30.9%0-4+0.4%1 1-07.2%1-18.7%1-25.2%1-32.1%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.0%2-19.7%2-25.8%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-05.9%3-17.2%3-24.3%3-31.7%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-05.5%4+-16.7%4+-24.0%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.8% 73.5% 1.36 -28.2%

Draw 23.7% 23.1% 4.33 +1.6%

Away win 23.5% 15.4% 6.50 +31.6%

Over 2.5 63.9% 58.8% 1.70 +8.6%

Over 3.5 44.8% 37.6% 2.66 +19.2%

BTTS 59.7% 54.3% 1.84 +9.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -19.8%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob59.7%

H 53% / xG 2.2-1.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.7%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.0%

#4 3–1 7.2%

#5 3–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

One Taguig2.2

Kaya FC1.2

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 44.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ONE TAGUIG · PPG 2.58

KAYA FC · PPG 1.90

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.58) > Away GOOD (1.90)

Win probability 1X2

One Taguig (H) 52.8%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -28.2%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +1.6%

Kaya FC (A) 23.5%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV +31.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

One Taguig face Kaya FC in Philippines - PFL on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives One Taguig a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Kaya FC 24%, so One Taguig are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for One Taguig and 1.2 for Kaya FC (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, One Taguig are averaging 2.58 points per game versus 1.90 for Kaya FC. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +31.6%. This match finished 1-3.

One Taguig vs Kaya FC Prediction— Philippines - PFL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Philippines - PFL Predictions