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Manila Digger vs Stallion Prediction— Philippines - PFL

Group Stage ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 07:30

Manila Digger

PPG 2.60 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Stallion

PPG 1.58 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.7%0-10.9%0-20.6%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-02.5%1-13.3%1-22.2%1-30.9%1-4+0.4%2 2-04.6%2-16.1%2-24.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.8%3 3-05.7%3-17.4%3-24.9%3-32.1%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-013.4%4+-117.6%4+-211.6%4+-35.1%4+-4+2.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.6% — — —

Draw 20.7% — — —

Away win 14.7% — — —

Over 2.5 79.0% — — —

Over 3.5 73.2% — — —

BTTS 62.9% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -19.8%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 76%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)3.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob62.9%

H 65% / xG 3.7-1.3 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.4%

#2 4–1 6.8%

#3 2–1 6.1%

#4 3–0 5.7%

#5 4–0 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Manila Digger3.7

Stallion1.3

COMBINED 5.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.0% · O3.5 PROB 73.2%

Form & verdict PPG

MANILA DIGGER · PPG 2.60

STALLION · PPG 1.58

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.60) vs P(Home)=64.6%

Win probability 1X2

Manila Digger (H) 64.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Stallion (A) 14.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Manila Digger face Stallion in Philippines - PFL on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Manila Digger a 65% chance, the draw 21% and Stallion 15%, so Manila Digger are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.7 for Manila Digger and 1.3 for Stallion (5.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Manila Digger are averaging 2.60 points per game versus 1.58 for Stallion. This match finished 1-1.

Manila Digger vs Stallion Prediction— Philippines - PFL

Match Preview & Prediction

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