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Davao Aguilas vs One Taguig Prediction— Philippines - PFL

Group Stage ·Wednesday, May 27, 2026, 10:15

Davao Aguilas

PPG 2.00 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY O1.5

One Taguig

PPG 2.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Home weakness: EXCELLENT (2.00) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.50)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.8%0-15.3%0-27.5%0-37.1%0-4+10.2%1 1-02.1%1-16.0%1-28.6%1-38.1%1-4+11.6%2 2-01.2%2-13.4%2-24.9%2-34.6%2-4+6.6%3 3-00.5%3-11.3%3-21.9%3-31.8%3-4+2.5%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.5%4+-20.7%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.8% 14.3% 7.00 -2.0%

Draw 21.1% 16.7% 6.00 +16.0%

Away win 65.1% 82.0% 1.22 -20.6%

Over 2.5 63.9% 71.4% 1.40 -10.5%

Over 3.5 56.5% 50.8% 1.97 +11.3%

BTTS 59.7% 58.8% 1.70 +1.5%

Home O1.5 31.7% 22.5% 4.45 +41.1%

Away O1.5 77.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -19.8%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 72%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)2.8 BTTS prob59.7%

A 65% / xG 1.1-2.8 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.6%

#2 1–3 8.1%

#3 0–2 7.5%

#4 0–3 7.1%

#5 1–1✓ 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Davao Aguilas1.1

One Taguig2.8

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 56.5%

Form & verdict PPG

DAVAO AGUILAS · PPG 2.00

ONE TAGUIG · PPG 2.50

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: EXCELLENT (2.00) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.50)

Win probability 1X2

Davao Aguilas (H) 13.8%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV -2.0%

Draw 21.1%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +16.0%

One Taguig (A) 65.1%

ODDS 1.22 · IMPLIED 82.0% EV -20.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Davao Aguilas face One Taguig in Philippines - PFL on Wednesday, May 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Davao Aguilas a 14% chance, the draw 21% and One Taguig 65%, so One Taguig are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Davao Aguilas and 2.8 for One Taguig (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Davao Aguilas are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 2.50 for One Taguig. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +41.1%. This match finished 1-1.

Davao Aguilas vs One Taguig Prediction— Philippines - PFL

Match Preview & Prediction

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