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Manila Digger vs One Taguig Prediction— Philippines - PFL

Group Stage ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 13:00

Manila Digger

PPG 2.45 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

One Taguig

PPG 2.36 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.2% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-14.2%0-23.6%0-32.1%0-4+1.4%1 1-04.8%1-18.3%1-27.2%1-34.2%1-4+2.7%2 2-04.8%2-18.3%2-27.2%2-34.2%2-4+2.7%3 3-03.2%3-15.5%3-24.8%3-32.8%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-14.3%4+-23.7%4+-32.2%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.4% 63.7% 1.57 -24.0%

Draw 22.1% 24.4% 4.10 -5.6%

Away win 29.5% 23.1% 4.33 +16.6%

Over 2.5 65.2% 67.6% 1.48 -3.5%

Over 3.5 43.1% 48.3% 2.07 -10.8%

BTTS 63.4% 67.6% 1.48 -6.2%

Home O1.5 59.0% 69.4% 1.44 -15.0%

Away O1.5 51.8% 37.3% 2.68 +38.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -19.8%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob63.4%

H 48% / xG 2.0-1.7 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 8.3%

#2 2–1 8.3%

#3 1–2 7.2%

#4 2–2 7.2%

#5 3–1 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Manila Digger2.0

One Taguig1.7

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.2% · O3.5 PROB 43.1%

Form & verdict PPG

MANILA DIGGER · PPG 2.45

ONE TAGUIG · PPG 2.36

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.45), Away EXCELLENT (2.36)

Win probability 1X2

Manila Digger (H) 48.4%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -24.0%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -5.6%

One Taguig (A) 29.5%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +16.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Manila Digger face One Taguig in Philippines - PFL on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Manila Digger a 48% chance, the draw 22% and One Taguig 30%, so Manila Digger are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Manila Digger and 1.7 for One Taguig (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Manila Digger are averaging 2.45 points per game versus 2.36 for One Taguig. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +38.8%. This match finished 1-1.

Manila Digger vs One Taguig Prediction— Philippines - PFL

Match Preview & Prediction

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