Today / Philippines - PFL / DH Cebu vs Kaya FC

DH Cebu vs Kaya FC Prediction— Philippines - PFL

Group Stage ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 10:15

DH Cebu

PPG 1.75 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Kaya FC

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.3% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-14.6%0-24.5%0-33.0%0-4+2.3%1 1-04.2%1-18.2%1-28.1%1-35.3%1-4+4.1%2 2-03.7%2-17.3%2-27.2%2-34.7%2-4+3.7%3 3-02.2%3-14.4%3-24.3%3-32.8%3-4+2.2%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-12.9%4+-22.9%4+-31.9%4+-4+1.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.5% 27.8% 3.60 +27.8%

Draw 22.3% 26.7% 3.75 -9.8%

Away win 42.2% 57.1% 1.75 -26.2%

Over 2.5 65.3% 62.5% 1.60 +4.5%

Over 3.5 43.1% 41.2% 2.43 +4.7%

BTTS 63.4% 65.8% 1.52 -3.6%

Home O1.5 53.3% 38.9% 2.57 +37.0%

Away O1.5 58.5% 59.2% 1.69 -1.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -19.8%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob63.4%

A 42% / xG 1.8-2.0 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.2%

#2 1–2 8.1%

#3 2–1 7.3%

#4 2–2 7.2%

#5 1–3 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

DH Cebu1.8

Kaya FC2.0

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.3% · O3.5 PROB 43.1%

Form & verdict PPG

DH CEBU · PPG 1.75

KAYA FC · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

48%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.75), Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

DH Cebu (H) 35.5%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +27.8%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -9.8%

Kaya FC (A) 42.2%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -26.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

DH Cebu face Kaya FC in Philippines - PFL on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives DH Cebu a 36% chance, the draw 22% and Kaya FC 42%, so Kaya FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for DH Cebu and 2.0 for Kaya FC (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, DH Cebu are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 2.00 for Kaya FC. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +37.0%. This match finished 1-0.

DH Cebu vs Kaya FC Prediction— Philippines - PFL

Match Preview & Prediction

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