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Kaya FC vs Davao Aguilas Prediction— Philippines - PFL

Group Stage ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 10:15

Kaya FC

PPG 2.09 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Davao Aguilas

PPG 1.30 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 69.8% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a clear edge.

+18.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-11.6%0-21.0%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-04.3%1-15.1%1-23.0%1-31.2%1-4+0.5%2 2-06.6%2-17.8%2-24.7%2-31.8%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.8%3-18.1%3-24.8%3-31.9%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-011.4%4+-113.6%4+-28.1%4+-33.2%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.7% 69.0% 1.45 -10.5%

Draw 20.6% 24.4% 4.10 -9.3%

Away win 17.7% 20.0% 5.00 -6.9%

Over 2.5 69.8% 58.8% 1.70 +18.7%

Over 3.5 62.0% 38.6% 2.59 +60.6%

BTTS 59.7% 55.6% 1.80 +7.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -19.8%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)3.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob59.7%

H 62% / xG 3.1-1.2 / O2.5 70% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1✓ 8.1%

#2 2–1 7.8%

#3 3–0 6.8%

#4 2–0 6.6%

#5 4–1 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kaya FC3.1

Davao Aguilas1.2

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 69.8% · O3.5 PROB 62.0%

Form & verdict PPG

KAYA FC · PPG 2.09

DAVAO AGUILAS · PPG 1.30

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.09) > Away AVERAGE (1.30)

Win probability 1X2

Kaya FC (H) 61.7%

ODDS 1.45 · IMPLIED 69.0% EV -10.5%

Draw 20.6%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -9.3%

Davao Aguilas (A) 17.7%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -6.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kaya FC face Davao Aguilas in Philippines - PFL on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kaya FC a 62% chance, the draw 21% and Davao Aguilas 18%, so Kaya FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.1 for Kaya FC and 1.2 for Davao Aguilas (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kaya FC are averaging 2.09 points per game versus 1.30 for Davao Aguilas. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +60.6%. This match finished 3-1.

Kaya FC vs Davao Aguilas Prediction— Philippines - PFL

Match Preview & Prediction

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