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Philippines - PFL logo Philippines flag Philippines - PFL Group Stage Rizal Memorial Stadium· Manila Saturday, May 16, 2026 10:15
Kaya FC logo Kaya FC PPG 2.09
3-1 HIT MostLikelyScore
Davao Aguilas logo Davao Aguilas PPG 1.30
Over3.5· +60.6% ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage
75% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 61.7%
Odds: 1.45 EV: -10.5%
Draw 20.6%
Odds: 4.10 EV: -9.3%
Away 17.7%
Odds: 5.00 EV: -6.9%
Model lean: Over 2.5
Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 69.8% Odds: 1.70 +18.7%
Over 3.5 62.0% Odds: 2.59 +60.6%
BTTS 59.7% Odds: 1.80 +7.5%
O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 3-1
2nd 2-1
3rd 3-0
4th 2-0
5th 4-1

Expected Goals (xG)

Kaya FC
3.10
Davao Aguilas
1.19

Model Suggestion

Over 2.5 +18.7% ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market: Over 2.5.
Raw EV leader: Over3.5(+60.6%)

Verdict & Form

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage
75%
MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.09) > Away AVERAGE (1.30)

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