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Philippines - PFL
Group Stage
Rizal Memorial Stadium· Manila
Saturday, May 16, 2026
10:15
Kaya FC
PPG 2.09
3-1
HIT MostLikelyScore
Davao Aguilas
PPG 1.30
Over3.5· +60.6%
✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage
75% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Home
61.7%
Odds: 1.45
EV: -10.5%
Draw
20.6%
Odds: 4.10
EV: -9.3%
Away
17.7%
Odds: 5.00
EV: -6.9%
Model lean:
Over 2.5
Result: Home ✔
Goals Markets
Over 2.5
69.8%
Odds: 1.70
+18.7%
Over 3.5
62.0%
Odds: 2.59
+60.6%
BTTS
59.7%
Odds: 1.80
+7.5%
O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔
BTTS YES → YES ✔
Correct Score Picks
1st
3-1
✔
2nd
2-1
✘
3rd
3-0
✘
4th
2-0
✘
5th
4-1
✘
Expected Goals (xG)
Kaya FC
3.10
Davao Aguilas
1.19
Model Suggestion
Over 2.5
+18.7%
ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market:
Over 2.5.
Raw EV leader:
Over3.5(+60.6%)
Verdict & Form
✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage
75%
MODERATE_HOME
Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.09) > Away AVERAGE (1.30)