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Maharlika vs Garelli Utd Prediction— Philippines - PFL

Group Stage ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 11:00

Maharlika

PPG 1.91 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O3.5

Garelli Utd

PPG 0.82 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 3.5

Combined xG of 7.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.1%0-10.2%0-20.2%0-30.1%0-4+0.1%1 1-00.4%1-10.8%1-20.9%1-30.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-01.0%2-12.1%2-22.2%2-31.5%2-4+1.3%3 3-01.7%3-13.6%3-23.7%3-32.6%3-4+2.2%4+ 4+-09.3%4+-119.3%4+-220.1%4+-313.9%4+-4+11.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.0% — — —

Draw 19.3% — — —

Away win 13.7% — — —

Over 2.5 80.4% — — —

Over 3.5 92.5% — — —

BTTS 66.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -19.8%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)5.1 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob66.7%

H 67% / xG 5.1-2.1 / O2.5 80% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 5–2 4.7%

#2 4–2 4.7%

#3 5–1 4.6%

#4 4–1 4.5%

#5 3–2✓ 3.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Maharlika5.1

Garelli Utd2.1

COMBINED 7.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 80.4% · O3.5 PROB 92.5%

Form & verdict PPG

MAHARLIKA · PPG 1.91

GARELLI UTD · PPG 0.82

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.91), Away POOR (0.82) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Maharlika (H) 67.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 19.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Garelli Utd (A) 13.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Maharlika face Garelli Utd in Philippines - PFL on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Maharlika a 67% chance, the draw 19% and Garelli Utd 14%, so Maharlika are favoured to win. Expected goals are 5.1 for Maharlika and 2.1 for Garelli Utd (7.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 5-2. There is a 80% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Maharlika are averaging 1.91 points per game versus 0.82 for Garelli Utd. This match finished 3-2.

Maharlika vs Garelli Utd Prediction— Philippines - PFL

Match Preview & Prediction

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