Today / Philippines - PFL / Garelli Utd vs Philippine Army

Garelli Utd vs Philippine Army Prediction— Philippines - PFL

Group Stage ·Wednesday, May 20, 2026, 07:30

Garelli Utd

PPG 0.91 · HOME

8 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O3.5

Philippine Army

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 3.5

Combined xG of 8.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.0%0-10.0%0-20.0%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-00.1%1-10.2%1-20.2%1-30.2%1-4+0.1%2 2-00.4%2-10.8%2-20.8%2-30.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-00.8%3-11.7%3-21.7%3-31.1%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-012.3%4+-124.4%4+-224.4%4+-316.2%4+-4+12.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 75.2% — — —

Draw 17.0% — — —

Away win 7.8% — — —

Over 2.5 94.6% — — —

Over 3.5 97.3% — — —

BTTS 66.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -19.8%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 8-1

xG (home)6.7 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob66.7%

H 75% / xG 6.7-2.0 / O2.5 95% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 5–1 3.8%

#2 5–2 3.8%

#3 4–1 2.8%

#4 4–2 2.8%

#5 5–3 2.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Garelli Utd6.7

Philippine Army2.0

COMBINED 8.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 94.6% · O3.5 PROB 97.3%

Form & verdict PPG

GARELLI UTD · PPG 0.91

PHILIPPINE ARMY · PPG 0.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Garelli Utd (H) 75.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 17.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Philippine Army (A) 7.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Garelli Utd face Philippine Army in Philippines - PFL on Wednesday, May 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Garelli Utd a 75% chance, the draw 17% and Philippine Army 8%, so Garelli Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 6.7 for Garelli Utd and 2.0 for Philippine Army (8.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 5-1. There is a 95% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Garelli Utd are averaging 0.91 points per game versus 0.00 for Philippine Army. This match finished 8-1.

Garelli Utd vs Philippine Army Prediction— Philippines - PFL

Match Preview & Prediction

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