Today / Philippines - PFL / DH Cebu vs Manila Digger

DH Cebu vs Manila Digger Prediction— Philippines - PFL

Group Stage ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 07:30

DH Cebu

PPG 2.00 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Manila Digger

PPG 2.55 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 78.8% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.6%0-12.0%0-23.3%0-33.7%0-4+7.0%1 1-01.1%1-13.6%1-26.0%1-36.6%1-4+12.5%2 2-01.0%2-13.3%2-25.4%2-35.9%2-4+11.2%3 3-00.6%3-11.9%3-23.2%3-33.5%3-4+6.7%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-11.3%4+-22.2%4+-32.4%4+-4+4.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 21.5% 10.5% 9.50 +62.5%

Draw 19.7% 16.7% 6.00 +10.9%

Away win 58.8% 83.3% 1.20 -29.4%

Over 2.5 78.8% 76.9% 1.30 +2.4%

Over 3.5 74.8% 52.1% 1.92 +43.6%

BTTS 66.7% 56.8% 1.76 +17.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -19.8%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 73%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)3.3 BTTS prob66.7%

A 59% / xG 1.8-3.3 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–3 6.6%

#2 1–2 6.0%

#3 2–3 5.9%

#4 1–4 5.4%

#5 2–2 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

DH Cebu1.8

Manila Digger3.3

COMBINED 5.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 78.8% · O3.5 PROB 74.8%

Form & verdict PPG

DH CEBU · PPG 2.00

MANILA DIGGER · PPG 2.55

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.55) vs Home EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

DH Cebu (H) 21.5%

ODDS 9.50 · IMPLIED 10.5% EV +62.5%

Draw 19.7%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +10.9%

Manila Digger (A) 58.8%

ODDS 1.20 · IMPLIED 83.3% EV -29.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

DH Cebu face Manila Digger in Philippines - PFL on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives DH Cebu a 22% chance, the draw 20% and Manila Digger 59%, so Manila Digger are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for DH Cebu and 3.3 for Manila Digger (5.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-3. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, DH Cebu are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 2.55 for Manila Digger. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +62.5%. This match finished 1-1.

DH Cebu vs Manila Digger Prediction— Philippines - PFL

Match Preview & Prediction

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