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One Taguig vs DH Cebu Prediction— Philippines - PFL

Group Stage ·Wednesday, May 20, 2026, 13:00

One Taguig

PPG 2.73 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

DH Cebu

PPG 2.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.8%0-12.2%0-21.4%0-30.6%0-4+0.3%1 1-04.9%1-16.2%1-23.9%1-31.7%1-4+0.7%2 2-06.7%2-18.6%2-25.4%2-32.3%2-4+1.0%3 3-06.2%3-17.9%3-25.0%3-32.1%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-08.5%4+-110.8%4+-26.8%4+-32.9%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.0% 71.4% 1.40 -17.4%

Draw 20.7% 22.2% 4.50 -4.1%

Away win 20.3% 17.4% 5.75 +10.0%

Over 2.5 63.9% 61.7% 1.62 +3.5%

Over 3.5 57.5% 40.7% 2.46 +41.4%

BTTS 60.9% 55.6% 1.80 +9.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -19.8%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 69%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob60.9%

H 59% / xG 2.8-1.3 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.6%

#2 3–1 7.9%

#3 1–1✓ 6.2%

#4 2–0 6.7%

#5 3–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

One Taguig2.8

DH Cebu1.3

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 57.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ONE TAGUIG · PPG 2.73

DH CEBU · PPG 2.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.73) > Away EXCELLENT (2.20)

Win probability 1X2

One Taguig (H) 59.0%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -17.4%

Draw 20.7%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -4.1%

DH Cebu (A) 20.3%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV +10.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

One Taguig face DH Cebu in Philippines - PFL on Wednesday, May 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives One Taguig a 59% chance, the draw 21% and DH Cebu 20%, so One Taguig are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for One Taguig and 1.3 for DH Cebu (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, One Taguig are averaging 2.73 points per game versus 2.20 for DH Cebu. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +41.4%. This match finished 1-1.

One Taguig vs DH Cebu Prediction— Philippines - PFL

Match Preview & Prediction

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